What do we know about the future of foresight modeling related to food systems?
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International Food Policy Research Institute
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“Foresight modeling” is thinking about the future using a simplified representation of reality to inform choices we make today.
Quantitative foresight modeling is increasingly used to inform decision-making related to food systems by analytically exploring alternative possible futures in a world that is becoming more complex and uncertain.
Foresight modeling is improving in coverage and resolution, but various technical and institutional gaps remain.
Artificial intelligence can help gather and synthesize information to improve foresight modeling, but it cannot replace the role of human expertise and foresight in testing assumptions and helping to shape the future.
To be most effective, quantitative foresight modeling needs to be better linked with qualitative foresight approaches and complemented by engagement with decision-makers in an ongoing and systematic process.
Palabras clave
artificial intelligence, food systems, modelling, climate models, growth models, econometric models, decision-support systems