The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa

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dc.creatorKaminski, Jonathan
dc.creatorChristiaensen, Luc
dc.creatorGilbert, Christopher L.
dc.date2014-06-25T21:56:37Z
dc.date2014-06-25T21:56:37Z
dc.date2014-06
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:55:51Z
dc.descriptionThis paper revisits the extent of seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared from Africa's development debate. Through econometric analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal movements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility. Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania, Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthly troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps observed for white maize at the South African Futures Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found to inversely track food prices in each country, decreasing when staple prices increase and increasing when they decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food markets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19616385/end-seasonality-new-insights-sub-saharan-africa
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/18771
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6907
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/413115
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6907
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANALYSIS OF VARIANCE
dc.subjectARBITRAGE
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.subjectAVERAGE PRICE
dc.subjectBANANAS
dc.subjectBARS
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectCAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectCARROTS
dc.subjectCASSAVA
dc.subjectCEREALS
dc.subjectCOMMERCE
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subjectCOOKING
dc.subjectCOST OF CAPITAL
dc.subjectCREDIT CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectDEBTS
dc.subjectDEFLATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKETS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectDURABLE GOODS
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMICS LITERATURE
dc.subjectENTRY POINTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKET
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS
dc.subjectFLOUR
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFOOD CROPS
dc.subjectFOOD INTAKE
dc.subjectFOOD MARKETS
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD SHORTAGES
dc.subjectFOOD STAPLES
dc.subjectFOOD STORAGE
dc.subjectFOOD TRANSFERS
dc.subjectFOODS
dc.subjectFRUITS
dc.subjectFUTURES
dc.subjectGAUGE
dc.subjectGINI COEFFICIENT
dc.subjectGRAINS
dc.subjectGROUNDNUTS
dc.subjectIMPERFECT COMPETITION
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINEQUALITY MEASURES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MARKETS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCIES
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectMAIZE
dc.subjectMARKET INTEGRATION
dc.subjectMARKET POWER
dc.subjectMARKET PRICE
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMARKET STRUCTURE
dc.subjectMARKETING
dc.subjectMARKETPLACE
dc.subjectMARKETPLACES
dc.subjectMOBILE PHONE
dc.subjectMOBILE PHONES
dc.subjectMONOPOLIES
dc.subjectMORTGAGES
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COST
dc.subjectORANGES
dc.subjectPERISHABILITY
dc.subjectPORK
dc.subjectPOTATOES
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectPRICE MOVEMENT
dc.subjectPRICE MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectPRICE RISK
dc.subjectPRICE SERIES
dc.subjectPRICE THEORY
dc.subjectPRICE TRENDS
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRODUCT MARKET
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVE ASSETS
dc.subjectPULSES
dc.subjectPURCHASING
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectRANDOM WALK
dc.subjectRATE OF RETURN
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectRETAIL
dc.subjectRETAIL MARKETS
dc.subjectRETAIL PRICES
dc.subjectRICE
dc.subjectSEASONAL FACTOR
dc.subjectSEASONAL FACTORS
dc.subjectSPREAD
dc.subjectSTAPLE FOODS
dc.subjectSTOCK EXCHANGE
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTE
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectSUGAR
dc.subjectSUPPLY INCREASES
dc.subjectSWEET POTATOES
dc.subjectTHIRD WORLD
dc.subjectTOMATOES
dc.subjectTRANSACTION COSTS
dc.subjectTROUGH
dc.subjectTUBERS
dc.subjectUNDUE INFLUENCE
dc.subjectVEGETABLES
dc.subjectVOLATILITY
dc.subjectWHEAT
dc.subjectWHEAT FLOUR
dc.subjectWHOLESALE MARKETS
dc.subjectWHOLESALE PRICE
dc.subjectWHOLESALE PRICES
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectYAMS
dc.titleThe End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa

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