The End of Seasonality? New Insights from Sub-Saharan Africa
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper revisits the extent of
seasonality in African livelihoods, which has disappeared
from Africa's development debate. Through econometric
analysis of monthly food price series across 100 locations
in three countries during 2000-12, it is shown that seasonal
movements in maize wholesale prices explain 20 (Tanzania,
Uganda) to 40 (Malawi) percent of their monthly volatility.
Monthly maize peak prices are on average 30 (Tanzania,
Uganda) to 50 (Malawi) percent higher than their monthly
troughs and two to three times higher than the seasonal gaps
observed for white maize at the South African Futures
Exchange. Furthermore, household food consumption is found
to inversely track food prices in each country, decreasing
when staple prices increase and increasing when they
decline. Clearly, (excess) seasonality in African food
markets and consumption persists, necessitating policy attention.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE, ARBITRAGE, ARIMA, AVERAGE PRICE, BANANAS, BARS, BENCHMARK, CAPITAL MARKETS, CARROTS, CASSAVA, CEREALS, COMMERCE, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, COOKING, COST OF CAPITAL, CREDIT CONSTRAINTS, DEBTS, DEFLATION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DURABLE GOODS, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMICS LITERATURE, ENTRY POINTS, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT MARKET, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS, FLOUR, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CROPS, FOOD INTAKE, FOOD MARKETS, FOOD POLICY, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD PRODUCTS, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SHORTAGES, FOOD STAPLES, FOOD STORAGE, FOOD TRANSFERS, FOODS, FRUITS, FUTURES, GAUGE, GINI COEFFICIENT, GRAINS, GROUNDNUTS, IMPERFECT COMPETITION, INCOME, INEQUALITY MEASURES, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDITY, LOCAL CURRENCIES, LOCAL CURRENCY, MAIZE, MARKET INTEGRATION, MARKET POWER, MARKET PRICE, MARKET PRICES, MARKET STRUCTURE, MARKETING, MARKETPLACE, MARKETPLACES, MOBILE PHONE, MOBILE PHONES, MONOPOLIES, MORTGAGES, OPPORTUNITY COST, ORANGES, PERISHABILITY, PORK, POTATOES, PRICE ELASTICITY, PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, PRICE INDEX, PRICE MOVEMENT, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE RISK, PRICE SERIES, PRICE THEORY, PRICE TRENDS, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRODUCT MARKET, PRODUCTIVE ASSETS, PULSES, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RANDOM WALK, RATE OF RETURN, REGIONAL TRADE, RETAIL, RETAIL MARKETS, RETAIL PRICES, RICE, SEASONAL FACTOR, SEASONAL FACTORS, SPREAD, STAPLE FOODS, STOCK EXCHANGE, SUBSTITUTE, SUBSTITUTION, SUGAR, SUPPLY INCREASES, SWEET POTATOES, THIRD WORLD, TOMATOES, TRANSACTION COSTS, TROUGH, TUBERS, UNDUE INFLUENCE, VEGETABLES, VOLATILITY, WHEAT, WHEAT FLOUR, WHOLESALE MARKETS, WHOLESALE PRICE, WHOLESALE PRICES, WORLD MARKET, WORLD MARKETS, YAMS