Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum

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dc.creatorElbadawi, Ibrahim
dc.creatorMilante, Gary
dc.creatorPischedda, Costantino
dc.date2012-05-31T21:37:17Z
dc.date2012-05-31T21:37:17Z
dc.date2008-07
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:23:59Z
dc.descriptionThis paper presents a game theory model of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in 2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and brinksmanship is a rational response for both actors, neither of which can credibly commit to lower levels of military spending under the current status quo. This militarization is often at the expense of health and education expenditures, suggesting that the opportunity cost of militarization is foregone economic development. These credibility issues might be resolved by democratization, increased transparency, reduction of information asymmetries, and efforts to promote economic and political cooperation. The paper explores these devices, demonstrating how they can contribute to Pareto preferred outcomes in equilibrium. The authors characterize the military expenditure associated with the commitment problem experienced by both sides, estimate its costs from data for Sudan, and identify the opportunity cost of foregone development implied by continued, excessive, and unsustainable militarization.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/07/9738591/referendum-response-consequences-sudan-game-between-juba-khartoum
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/6816
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4684
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/417735
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper No. 4684
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectALIGNMENT
dc.subjectALLIANCE
dc.subjectALLIANCES
dc.subjectANNUAL EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectAPPROPRIATION
dc.subjectARMED FORCES
dc.subjectARMS
dc.subjectARMS RACE
dc.subjectARMY
dc.subjectASYMMETRIC INFORMATION
dc.subjectBID
dc.subjectBOUNDARIES
dc.subjectBOUNDARY
dc.subjectBUREAUCRATIC QUALITY
dc.subjectCENTRAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectCESSATION OF HOSTILITIES
dc.subjectCITIZENS
dc.subjectCIVIL CONFLICT
dc.subjectCIVIL SOCIETY
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR
dc.subjectCIVIL WARS
dc.subjectCIVILIAN CASUALTIES
dc.subjectCOLLECTIVE ACTION
dc.subjectCOMMITMENT DEVICE
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectCONFLICT MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectCONFLICTS
dc.subjectCONSTRAINT
dc.subjectCONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE
dc.subjectCOST OF WAR
dc.subjectCOUNTERPARTS
dc.subjectCREDIBILITY
dc.subjectCRISES
dc.subjectDEATHS
dc.subjectDECISION-MAKING
dc.subjectDECISION-MAKING PROCESSES
dc.subjectDEFENSE
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectDEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS
dc.subjectDEMOCRATIC TRANSITION
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectDISABILITY
dc.subjectDISEASES
dc.subjectDISPUTES
dc.subjectDIVORCE
dc.subjectDRINKING WATER
dc.subjectDUMMY VARIABLE
dc.subjectECONOMIC COOPERATION
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESOURCES
dc.subjectEDUCATION EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectELECTIONS
dc.subjectFIGHTING
dc.subjectFOUNDATIONS
dc.subjectGOOD GOVERNANCE
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE STANDARDS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectHEALTH EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectHEALTH OUTCOMES
dc.subjectHEALTH SPENDING
dc.subjectHOLDING
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMF
dc.subjectINFORMATION ASYMMETRIES
dc.subjectINFORMATION EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL STANDARDS
dc.subjectLIVE BIRTHS
dc.subjectMALARIA
dc.subjectMARGINAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectMATERNAL MORTALITY
dc.subjectMATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO
dc.subjectMEASLES
dc.subjectMEASLES IMMUNIZATION
dc.subjectMEDIATION
dc.subjectMEETINGS
dc.subjectMILITARIZATION
dc.subjectMILITARY EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectMILITARY EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectMILITARY FORCES
dc.subjectMILITARY GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectMILITARY POWER
dc.subjectMILITARY SPENDING
dc.subjectMILITIAS
dc.subjectMILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS
dc.subjectMODALITIES
dc.subjectNATIONAL SECURITY
dc.subjectNATIONS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES
dc.subjectNEGOTIATIONS
dc.subjectNET PRESENT VALUE
dc.subjectOBSERVERS
dc.subjectOIL RESERVES
dc.subjectOIL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COST
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COSTS
dc.subjectPEACE
dc.subjectPEACE NEGOTIATIONS
dc.subjectPEACE PROCESS
dc.subjectPEACE PROCESSES
dc.subjectPEACEFUL COEXISTENCE
dc.subjectPEACEKEEPING
dc.subjectPOLICY BRIEF
dc.subjectPOLICY IMPLICATIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER
dc.subjectPOLITICAL OPPOSITION
dc.subjectPOLITICAL PARTIES
dc.subjectPOLITICAL PARTY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL RIGHTS
dc.subjectPOLITICAL RISK
dc.subjectPOLITICAL VIOLENCE
dc.subjectPOLITICIANS
dc.subjectPOPULATION CENSUS
dc.subjectPRIMARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOL
dc.subjectPRINCIPAL-AGENT
dc.subjectPRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM
dc.subjectPROGRESS
dc.subjectPUBLIC ECONOMICS
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW
dc.subjectPUBLIC GOODS
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectPUBLIC MONEY
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectREBEL
dc.subjectRECONSTRUCTION
dc.subjectREFERENDUM
dc.subjectREFUGEE
dc.subjectREPATRIATION
dc.subjectRESPECT
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectREVENUE SHARING
dc.subjectRISK NEUTRAL
dc.subjectROAD
dc.subjectROADS
dc.subjectRULE OF LAW
dc.subjectSAFETY NET
dc.subjectSANITATION
dc.subjectSANITATION FACILITIES
dc.subjectSCARCE RESOURCES
dc.subjectSCHOOL ATTENDANCE
dc.subjectSELF-DETERMINATION
dc.subjectSERVICE DELIVERY
dc.subjectSKILLED PERSONNEL
dc.subjectSOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectSOCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectSOCIAL SERVICE
dc.subjectSOLDIER
dc.subjectSTRATEGIC PLANNING
dc.subjectSUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX REVENUE
dc.subjectTAX REVENUES
dc.subjectTERRORISM
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectUNDERDEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectUTILITY FUNCTIONS
dc.subjectVALUE OF EXPORTS
dc.subjectVIOLENCE
dc.subjectVIOLENT CONFLICT
dc.subjectWAR
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT
dc.titleReferendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum

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