Referendum, Response, and Consequences for Sudan : The Game between Juba and Khartoum
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper presents a game theory model
of the strategic interaction between Khartoum and Juba
leading up to the referendum on Sudan's partition in
2011. The findings show that excessive militarization and
brinksmanship is a rational response for both actors,
neither of which can credibly commit to lower levels of
military spending under the current status quo. This
militarization is often at the expense of health and
education expenditures, suggesting that the opportunity cost
of militarization is foregone economic development. These
credibility issues might be resolved by democratization,
increased transparency, reduction of information
asymmetries, and efforts to promote economic and political
cooperation. The paper explores these devices, demonstrating
how they can contribute to Pareto preferred outcomes in
equilibrium. The authors characterize the military
expenditure associated with the commitment problem
experienced by both sides, estimate its costs from data for
Sudan, and identify the opportunity cost of foregone
development implied by continued, excessive, and
unsustainable militarization.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ALIGNMENT, ALLIANCE, ALLIANCES, ANNUAL EXPENDITURES, APPROPRIATION, ARMED FORCES, ARMS, ARMS RACE, ARMY, ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION, BID, BOUNDARIES, BOUNDARY, BUREAUCRATIC QUALITY, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT, CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES, CITIZENS, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL SOCIETY, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, CIVILIAN CASUALTIES, COLLECTIVE ACTION, COMMITMENT DEVICE, CONFLICT, CONFLICT MANAGEMENT, CONFLICTS, CONSTRAINT, CONTRACEPTIVE PREVALENCE, COST OF WAR, COUNTERPARTS, CREDIBILITY, CRISES, DEATHS, DECISION-MAKING, DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES, DEFENSE, DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRATIC GOVERNMENTS, DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES, DISABILITY, DISEASES, DISPUTES, DIVORCE, DRINKING WATER, DUMMY VARIABLE, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INTERDEPENDENCE, ECONOMIC RESOURCES, EDUCATION EXPENDITURES, ELECTIONS, FIGHTING, FOUNDATIONS, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GOVERNANCE STANDARDS, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, HEALTH EXPENDITURES, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH SPENDING, HOLDING, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMF, INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES, INFORMATION EQUILIBRIUM, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL INTERVENTION, INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, LIVE BIRTHS, MALARIA, MARGINAL BENEFITS, MATERNAL MORTALITY, MATERNAL MORTALITY RATIO, MEASLES, MEASLES IMMUNIZATION, MEDIATION, MEETINGS, MILITARIZATION, MILITARY EXPENDITURE, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, MILITARY FORCES, MILITARY GOVERNMENT, MILITARY POWER, MILITARY SPENDING, MILITIAS, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MODALITIES, NATIONAL SECURITY, NATIONS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES, NEGOTIATIONS, NET PRESENT VALUE, OBSERVERS, OIL RESERVES, OIL RESOURCES, OPPORTUNITY COST, OPPORTUNITY COSTS, PEACE, PEACE NEGOTIATIONS, PEACE PROCESS, PEACE PROCESSES, PEACEFUL COEXISTENCE, PEACEKEEPING, POLICY BRIEF, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL OPPOSITION, POLITICAL PARTIES, POLITICAL PARTY, POLITICAL RIGHTS, POLITICAL RISK, POLITICAL VIOLENCE, POLITICIANS, POPULATION CENSUS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRINCIPAL-AGENT, PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM, PROGRESS, PUBLIC ECONOMICS, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE REVIEW, PUBLIC GOODS, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS, PUBLIC MONEY, PUBLIC SPENDING, REBEL, RECONSTRUCTION, REFERENDUM, REFUGEE, REPATRIATION, RESPECT, RETURN, RETURNS, REVENUE SHARING, RISK NEUTRAL, ROAD, ROADS, RULE OF LAW, SAFETY NET, SANITATION, SANITATION FACILITIES, SCARCE RESOURCES, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SELF-DETERMINATION, SERVICE DELIVERY, SKILLED PERSONNEL, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SOCIAL SECTOR, SOCIAL SERVICE, SOLDIER, STRATEGIC PLANNING, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, TAX, TAX REVENUE, TAX REVENUES, TERRORISM, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPORTATION, UNCERTAINTY, UNDERDEVELOPMENT, UTILITY FUNCTIONS, VALUE OF EXPORTS, VIOLENCE, VIOLENT CONFLICT, WAR, WORLD DEVELOPMENT