Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia

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dc.creatorLaborde, David
dc.creatorLakatos, Csilla
dc.creatorNelson, Gerald
dc.creatorRobertson, Richard
dc.creatorThomas, Marcelle
dc.creatorYu, Winston
dc.creatorJansen, Hans G.P.
dc.date2017-05-30T21:56:42Z
dc.date2017-05-30T21:56:42Z
dc.date2012
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:33:21Z
dc.descriptionThere is increasing evidence suggesting that climate change will negatively impact agricultural production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ substantially for individual South Asian countries and indeed for regions within a given country which can be approximated by food production units. This calls for an analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the paper include the following: analyze the extent to which agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the world may be affected by different scenarios regarding climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate change will lead to increased demand for imports by South Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will dampen the effects of climate change on domestic agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used - with particular attention to how different models and modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge. Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows and policies, and production patterns for key food products in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes. Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/603231468307155370/Climate-change-and-agriculture-in-South-Asia-alternative-trade-policy-options
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/26792
dc.identifier10.1596/26792
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/406007
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL TRADE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectALLOCATION
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectANTARCTICA
dc.subjectAPPAREL
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subjectAVERAGE TARIFF
dc.subjectAVERAGE TARIFF LEVELS
dc.subjectAVERAGE TARIFFS
dc.subjectBENEFITS OF TRADE
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectBIOMASS
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOOD
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectCARBON DIOXIDE
dc.subjectCARBON FIXATION
dc.subjectCHANGES IN TRADE
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGES
dc.subjectCLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subjectCLIMATES
dc.subjectCLOSED ECONOMY
dc.subjectCO2
dc.subjectCOAL
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectCONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY OF ORIGIN
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKET
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRODUCTION
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectECONOMIC DISTORTIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPACTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC MODEL
dc.subjectECONOMIC MODELS
dc.subjectECONOMIC RELATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC SIZE
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF SUPPLY
dc.subjectEMISSION
dc.subjectEMISSION SCENARIOS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS SCENARIOS
dc.subjectENERGY EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectENERGY PRICE
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEVAPOTRANSPIRATION
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKET
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectEXPORT POLICIES
dc.subjectEXPORT VALUE
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXTREME EVENTS
dc.subjectEXTREME VALUES
dc.subjectFACTOR ENDOWMENTS
dc.subjectFACTOR MARKETS
dc.subjectFACTOR PRICE
dc.subjectFATS
dc.subjectFERTILIZATION
dc.subjectFIXED COSTS
dc.subjectFOOD EXPORTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN MARKETS
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectFOSSIL FUELS
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectFREE TRADE AREA
dc.subjectFULL EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectFULL LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectFUTURE RESEARCH
dc.subjectGCM
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectGHG
dc.subjectGHGS
dc.subjectGLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGLOBAL TRADE
dc.subjectGRAVITY MODEL
dc.subjectGREEN HOUSE GAS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectHIGH TARIFFS
dc.subjectHYDROLOGY
dc.subjectIMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectIMPORT DUTIES
dc.subjectIMPORT DUTY
dc.subjectIMPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFFS
dc.subjectIMPORT VALUE
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINELASTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectINTERMEDIATE GOODS
dc.subjectINTERMEDIATE INPUTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MARKET
dc.subjectINTRAREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DECISIONS
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectLABOR SUPPLY
dc.subjectLAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectMARGINAL COSTS
dc.subjectMARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectMETEOROLOGY
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectNATURAL GAS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectNET EXPORTER
dc.subjectNET EXPORTERS
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectNON-TARIFF BARRIERS
dc.subjectOILS
dc.subjectPARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPERFECT COMPETITION
dc.subjectPHOTOSYNTHESIS
dc.subjectPOLICY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOLICY SCENARIOS
dc.subjectPORTFOLIO
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectPREFERENTIAL ACCESS
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRICE PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPROTECTION RATES
dc.subjectPROTECTIONIST
dc.subjectPROTEINS
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectRATES OF PROTECTION
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREAL INCOME
dc.subjectREGIONAL INTEGRATION
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICE
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectRISK AVERSION
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectSOLAR RADIATION
dc.subjectSPECIALIZATION
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectSUPPLY SIDE
dc.subjectTARIFF BARRIERS
dc.subjectTARIFF RATE
dc.subjectTARIFF RATE QUOTAS
dc.subjectTARIFF RATES
dc.subjectTARIFF REDUCTIONS
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCES
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectTRADE BLOCKS
dc.subjectTRADE COSTS
dc.subjectTRADE FLOWS
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE LOSSES
dc.subjectTRADE MODELS
dc.subjectTRADE PARTNER
dc.subjectTRADE PARTNERS
dc.subjectTRADE PATTERNS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICIES
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectTRADE REGIME
dc.subjectTRADE RESTRICTIONS
dc.subjectTRADE VALUE
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNERS
dc.subjectTROPICS
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTIES
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectUNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectUNSKILLED LABOR
dc.subjectUTILITY FUNCTIONS
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectWAGE FLEXIBILITY
dc.subjectWAGE GAP
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWELFARE ANALYSIS
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectWORLD PRICES
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.titleClimate Change and Agriculture in South Asia
dc.titleAlternative Trade Policy Options
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.typeDocument de travail
dc.typeDocumento de trabajo

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