Climate Change and Agriculture in South Asia
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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There is increasing evidence suggesting
that climate change will negatively impact agricultural
production in South Asia. Decreased domestic production may
make South Asian countries more dependent on imports. The
extent to which South Asia will need to increase its imports
as a result of climate change will presumably depend on the
degree to which the latter will affect domestic output. The
effects of climate change on agriculture may well differ
substantially for individual South Asian countries and
indeed for regions within a given country which can be
approximated by food production units. This calls for an
analysis of climate change effects on trade flows under
alternative trade policy regimes both for agriculture and
non-agricultural sectors. The specific objectives of the
paper include the following: analyze the extent to which
agricultural production in South Asia and elsewhere in the
world may be affected by different scenarios regarding
climate change; analyze the extent to which changes in
domestic production in South Asia resulting from climate
change will lead to increased demand for imports by South
Asian countries; analyze the effects of increased import
demand in South Asia and changing exportable surpluses
elsewhere on world market prices of major agricultural
commodities consumed in South Asia; to the extent that South
Asian governments allow transmission of changes in world
market prices to domestic prices, analyze the potential
welfare effects of changes in the latter; analyze if, and to
what extent, worldwide trade liberalization and
implementation of South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) will
dampen the effects of climate change on domestic
agricultural prices in South Asia. In this context, the
report is organized as follows: chapter one gives
introduction. Chapter two describes the methodology used -
with particular attention to how different models and
modeling techniques are linked to produce an as accurate as
possible assessment based on state-of-the-art knowledge.
Chapter three provides an up-to-date analysis of trade flows
and policies, and production patterns for key food products
in South Asia to explain the context in which climate change
is taking place. Chapter four describes the climate change
scenarios and illustrates their consequences for crop yields
at a global level and for South Asia - and in particular
shows the vulnerability of the region to these changes.
Baseline design, simulations, and results are discussed in
chapter five. The final chapter six provides a short
summary, discusses the limitations of the analysis, and
derives suggestions and guidelines for future research.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATION, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, ANTARCTICA, APPAREL, ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION, ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATIONS, AVERAGE TARIFF, AVERAGE TARIFF LEVELS, AVERAGE TARIFFS, BENEFITS OF TRADE, BILATERAL TRADE, BIOMASS, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL GOOD, CAPITAL STOCK, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON FIXATION, CHANGES IN TRADE, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE SYSTEM, CLIMATES, CLOSED ECONOMY, CO2, COAL, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGES, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, CONSTANT ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, COUNTRY OF ORIGIN, CURRENT ACCOUNT, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC BEHAVIOR, ECONOMIC DISTORTIONS, ECONOMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC MODEL, ECONOMIC MODELS, ECONOMIC RELATIONS, ECONOMIC SIZE, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, ELASTICITY OF SUPPLY, EMISSION, EMISSION SCENARIOS, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENERGY PRICE, EQUILIBRIUM, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT POLICIES, EXPORT VALUE, EXPORTERS, EXTREME EVENTS, EXTREME VALUES, FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, FACTOR MARKETS, FACTOR PRICE, FATS, FERTILIZATION, FIXED COSTS, FOOD EXPORTS, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN MARKETS, FORESTRY, FOSSIL FUELS, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, FREE TRADE AREA, FULL EMPLOYMENT, FULL LIBERALIZATION, FUTURE RESEARCH, GCM, GDP, GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GHG, GHGS, GLOBAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GLOBAL TRADE, GRAVITY MODEL, GREEN HOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, HIGH TARIFFS, HYDROLOGY, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPORT DUTIES, IMPORT DUTY, IMPORT MARKETS, IMPORT TARIFFS, IMPORT VALUE, IMPORTS, INCOME, INELASTIC DEMAND, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERMEDIATE INPUTS, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INTRAREGIONAL TRADE, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, IPCC, LABOR SUPPLY, LAND ALLOCATION DECISIONS, LAND USE, MARGINAL COSTS, MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY, METEOROLOGY, MULTILATERAL TRADE, MULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL GAS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NET EXPORTER, NET EXPORTERS, NET EXPORTS, NON-TARIFF BARRIERS, OILS, PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, PERFECT COMPETITION, PHOTOSYNTHESIS, POLICY ANALYSIS, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY SCENARIOS, PORTFOLIO, PRECIPITATION, PREFERENTIAL ACCESS, PRICE ELASTICITY, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE PROJECTIONS, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROTECTION RATES, PROTECTIONIST, PROTEINS, RAINFALL, RATES OF PROTECTION, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL INCOME, REGIONAL INTEGRATION, REGIONAL TRADE, RELATIVE PRICE, RELATIVE PRICES, RISK AVERSION, SAFETY NETS, SOLAR RADIATION, SPECIALIZATION, SUBSTITUTION, SUPPLY SIDE, TARIFF BARRIERS, TARIFF RATE, TARIFF RATE QUOTAS, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, TEMPERATURE, TERMS OF TRADE, TERMS OF TRADE EFFECTS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE AGREEMENT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE BALANCES, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE BLOCKS, TRADE COSTS, TRADE FLOWS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE LOSSES, TRADE MODELS, TRADE PARTNER, TRADE PARTNERS, TRADE PATTERNS, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS, TRADE REGIME, TRADE RESTRICTIONS, TRADE VALUE, TRADING PARTNERS, TROPICS, UNCERTAINTIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNILATERAL TRADE, UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, UNSKILLED LABOR, UTILITY FUNCTIONS, VALUE ADDED, WAGE FLEXIBILITY, WAGE GAP, WAGES, WELFARE ANALYSIS, WORLD MARKETS, WORLD PRICES, WORLD TRADE