Agriculture and Trade Opportunities for Tanzania : Past Volatility and Future Climate Change
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Given global heterogeneity in
climate-induced agricultural variability, Tanzania has the
potential to substantially increase its maize exports to
other countries. If global maize production is lower than
usual due to supply shocks in major exporting regions,
Tanzania may be able to export more maize at higher prices,
even if it also experiences below-trend productivity.
Diverse destinations for exports can allow for enhanced
trading opportunities when negative supply shocks affect the
partners' usual import sources. Future climate
predictions suggest that some of Tanzania's trading
partners will experience severe dry conditions that may
reduce agricultural production in years when Tanzania is
only mildly affected. Tanzania could thus export grain to
countries as climate change increases the likelihood of
severe precipitation deficits in other countries while
simultaneously decreasing the likelihood of severe
precipitation deficits in Tanzania. Trade restrictions, like
export bans, prevent Tanzania from taking advantage of these
opportunities, foregoing significant economic benefits.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE CLIMATE, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGGREGATE LEVEL, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, ALLOCATION, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, ATMOSPHERIC CARBON, ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE, ATMOSPHERIC CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARKING, CHANGES IN PRICES, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS, CLIMATE CHANGE DETECTION, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CONDITIONS, CLIMATE EFFECTS, CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE MODELING, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE OUTCOMES, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE PREDICTIONS, CLIMATE SHOCK, CLIMATE SYSTEM, CLIMATES, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CO, CO2, COMMODITY MARKETS, CONSTANT ELASTICITIES, CONSTANT RETURNS TO SCALE, CONSUMER PREFERENCES, CONSUMERS, DAMAGES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPLICATIONS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, DROUGHT, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC BENEFITS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE, ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS SCENARIOS, EXCESS DEMAND, EXCESS SUPPLY, EXPORT BANS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PARITY, EXPORT PERMITS, EXPORT RESTRICTIONS, EXPORT TAX, EXPORT VALUE, EXPORTS, EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS, EXTREME DRY, EXTREME EVENTS, EXTREME HEAT, FREE TRADE, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, GCM, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY, GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL, GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONS, GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE, GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE CHANGE, GLOBAL TEMPERATURE, GLOBAL TRADE, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE FORCING, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS, GROWTH RATE, HIGH TEMPERATURES, HURRICANE, HURRICANE FREQUENCY, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPORT PARITY, IMPORT PRICE, IMPORT RESTRICTIONS, IMPORT SHARE, IMPORTS, INCOME, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, IPCC, LAND USE, LOWER PRICES, MULTILATERAL TRADE, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, OPEN ECONOMY, PERFECT COMPETITION, POLICY RESPONSE, POTENTIAL OUTPUT, PP, PRECIPITATION, PRICE DECLINES, PRICE EFFECT, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRODUCTIVITY, RAIN, REGIONAL CLIMATE, REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS, RELATIVE PRICES, RESOURCE ECONOMICS, SCENARIOS, SEASONAL PRECIPITATION, SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE, SUBSTITUTION, SUBSTITUTION EFFECT, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGE, TEMPERATURE EFFECTS, TEMPERATURE RISES, TOTAL OUTPUT, TRADE AGREEMENTS, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE DATA, TRADE DISCIPLINES, TRADE FACILITATION, TRADE INTEGRATION, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE MODEL, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE POLICY ENVIRONMENT, TRADE REGIME, TRADE REGIMES, TRADE RESTRICTIONS, TRADING PARTNERS, UNCERTAINTIES, WAGES, WORLD TRADE, WTO