Exports of Manufactures and Economic Growth

Vista sencilla de ítem
dc.creatorCline, William R.
dc.date2017-08-28T19:59:42Z
dc.date2017-08-28T19:59:42Z
dc.date2008
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:20:17Z
dc.descriptionThe author's 1982 article on the fallacy of composition questioned the feasibility of generalizing the "G4" (Hong Kong (China), the Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan (China)) growth model based on rapid growth of exports, on grounds that if all developing economies pursued it, their combined manufactured exports would eventually trigger protection in industrial countries. The1984 book of author identified a safe speed limit of about 10-15 percent annually for growth of developing country exports of manufactures, well below the 25-35 percent rate of Korea and Taiwan, China in the 1960s and 1970s. This study revisits this question in the light of a quarter-century of experience. It finds that developing countries' aggregate manufactured exports grew at about 10 percent annually, a robust pace but within the speed limits he had envisioned. Even so, in key sectors such as apparel, import penetration levels have exceeded thresholds that his earlier estimates would have suggested would provoke protection, suggesting the importance of increased World Trade Organization (WTO) discipline. The base of manufactured exports from poor countries remains small relative to that of China and the original G4, so there should be considerable room for export growth from these newcomers. However, a new macroeconomic version of the fallacy of composition problem could arise: the growing tendency of China and some other major emerging market economies to pursue rapidly rising trade surpluses that have their counterpart in an increasingly unsustainable U.S. current account deficit.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/366231468146085416/Exports-of-manufactures-and-economic-growth-the-fallacy-of-composition-revisited
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/28031
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/28031
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/417177
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationCommission on Growth and Development Working Paper;No. 36
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectABSOLUTE VALUE
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectADJUSTMENT COSTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectASSET PRICE
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectBENCHMARKS
dc.subjectBENEFITS OF TRADE
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCONSTANT DOLLARS
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCOUNTRY MARKETS
dc.subjectCURRENCY APPRECIATIONS
dc.subjectCURRENCY MARKETS
dc.subjectCURRENCY REALIGNMENT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCE
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT POSITIONS
dc.subjectDEBT CRISIS
dc.subjectDEMAND GROWTH
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectDEVALUATIONS
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
dc.subjectDOLLAR VALUES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKETS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRODUCTION
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIES OF SCALE
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF EXPORT
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEXCHANGE MARKETS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE INTERVENTION
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE NEEDS
dc.subjectEXPANSION OF EXPORTS
dc.subjectEXPORT DEMAND
dc.subjectEXPORT EARNINGS
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH RATES
dc.subjectEXPORT STRUCTURE
dc.subjectEXPORT VOLUMES
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEMAND
dc.subjectEXTERNAL POSITION
dc.subjectFEDERAL RESERVE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCIES
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectFOREIGN RESERVES
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectGLOBAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectGLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectGLOBAL MARKETS
dc.subjectGROSS NATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectGROWTH MODELS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectIMBALANCE
dc.subjectIMBALANCES
dc.subjectIMPORT
dc.subjectIMPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectIMPORT-SUBSTITUTING INDUSTRIALIZATION
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME ELASTICITY
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINDUSTRIAL COUNTRY
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL INVESTORS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MARKET
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL STANDARD
dc.subjectLEVELS OF IMPORT
dc.subjectLOSS OF CONFIDENCE
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectMARKET EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectMARKET FORCES
dc.subjectMARKET PENETRATION
dc.subjectMARKET PRICE
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectMERCANTILISM
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectNEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectOIL EXPORTER
dc.subjectOIL IMPORTER
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOIL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectPRICE OF EXPORTS
dc.subjectPROTECTIONIST
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER PARITY
dc.subjectRAPID EXPANSION
dc.subjectRAPID EXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL APPRECIATION
dc.subjectREAL APPRECIATIONS
dc.subjectREAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectREAL GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectREAL GROWTH RATES
dc.subjectREAL IMPORT
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectSOURCING
dc.subjectSURPLUS LABOR
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectTERMS OF TRADE EFFECT
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectTRADE GROWTH
dc.subjectTRADE LIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectTRADE NEGOTIATIONS
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE STRATEGY
dc.subjectTRADE STRUCTURE
dc.subjectTRADE SURPLUS
dc.subjectTRADE SURPLUSES
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNER
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNERS
dc.subjectUPWARD PRESSURE
dc.subjectURUGUAY ROUND
dc.subjectVALUATION
dc.subjectVALUATION CHANGES
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectWARRANTS
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectWTO
dc.titleExports of Manufactures and Economic Growth
dc.titleThe Fallacy of Composition Revisited
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.typeDocument de travail
dc.typeDocumento de trabajo

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