Exports of Manufactures and Economic Growth
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The author's 1982 article on the fallacy
of composition questioned the feasibility of generalizing
the "G4" (Hong Kong (China), the Republic of
Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan (China)) growth model based on
rapid growth of exports, on grounds that if all developing
economies pursued it, their combined manufactured exports
would eventually trigger protection in industrial countries.
The1984 book of author identified a safe speed limit of
about 10-15 percent annually for growth of developing
country exports of manufactures, well below the 25-35
percent rate of Korea and Taiwan, China in the 1960s and
1970s. This study revisits this question in the light of a
quarter-century of experience. It finds that developing
countries' aggregate manufactured exports grew at about
10 percent annually, a robust pace but within the speed
limits he had envisioned. Even so, in key sectors such as
apparel, import penetration levels have exceeded thresholds
that his earlier estimates would have suggested would
provoke protection, suggesting the importance of increased
World Trade Organization (WTO) discipline. The base of
manufactured exports from poor countries remains small
relative to that of China and the original G4, so there
should be considerable room for export growth from these
newcomers. However, a new macroeconomic version of the
fallacy of composition problem could arise: the growing
tendency of China and some other major emerging market
economies to pursue rapidly rising trade surpluses that have
their counterpart in an increasingly unsustainable U.S.
current account deficit.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE VALUE, ACCOUNTING, ADJUSTMENT COSTS, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL GROWTH, ASSET PRICE, BASE YEAR, BENCHMARK, BENCHMARKS, BENEFITS OF TRADE, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, COMMODITY, CONSTANT DOLLARS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, COUNTRY MARKETS, CURRENCY APPRECIATIONS, CURRENCY MARKETS, CURRENCY REALIGNMENT, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS, CURRENT ACCOUNT IMBALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT POSITIONS, DEBT CRISIS, DEMAND GROWTH, DEPRECIATION, DEVALUATIONS, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY, DOLLAR VALUES, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, ELASTICITY OF EXPORT, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE MARKETS, EXCHANGE RATE INTERVENTION, EXCHANGE RATE NEEDS, EXPANSION OF EXPORTS, EXPORT DEMAND, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT GROWTH RATE, EXPORT GROWTH RATES, EXPORT STRUCTURE, EXPORT VOLUMES, EXPORTERS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEFICIT, EXTERNAL DEMAND, EXTERNAL POSITION, FEDERAL RESERVE, FINANCIAL CAPITAL, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FISCAL POLICIES, FOREIGN CURRENCIES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES, FOREIGN RESERVES, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL CAPITAL, GLOBAL CAPITAL FLOWS, GLOBAL MARKETS, GROSS NATIONAL INCOME, GROWTH MODELS, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, IMBALANCE, IMBALANCES, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT-SUBSTITUTING INDUSTRIALIZATION, IMPORTS, INCOME ELASTICITY, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY, INFLATION, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT, INTERNATIONAL INVESTORS, INTERNATIONAL MARKET, INTERNATIONAL STANDARD, LEVELS OF IMPORT, LOSS OF CONFIDENCE, MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS, MARKET EXCHANGE RATES, MARKET FORCES, MARKET PENETRATION, MARKET PRICE, MARKET PRICES, MARKET SHARE, MERCANTILISM, MONETARY FUND, MULTILATERAL TRADE, MULTILATERAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, NATURAL RESOURCES, NET EXPORTS, NEWLY INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, OIL EXPORTER, OIL IMPORTER, OIL PRICES, OIL RESOURCES, OUTPUT, PENSION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE INDEX, PRICE OF EXPORTS, PROTECTIONIST, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RAPID EXPANSION, RAPID EXPORT GROWTH, RAPID GROWTH, REAL APPRECIATION, REAL APPRECIATIONS, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATES, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL EXPORTS, REAL GDP, REAL GROWTH RATE, REAL GROWTH RATES, REAL IMPORT, RECESSION, RELATIVE PRICES, RETURN, SOURCING, SURPLUS LABOR, TERMS OF TRADE, TERMS OF TRADE EFFECT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE GROWTH, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, TRADE POLICY, TRADE STRATEGY, TRADE STRUCTURE, TRADE SURPLUS, TRADE SURPLUSES, TRADING, TRADING PARTNER, TRADING PARTNERS, UPWARD PRESSURE, URUGUAY ROUND, VALUATION, VALUATION CHANGES, VALUE ADDED, WARRANTS, WORLD MARKETS, WTO