Forecasting Ex-Vessel Prices for Hard Blue Crabs in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Individual and Composite Methods
| dc.creator | Hudson, Michael A. | |
| dc.creator | Capps, Oral, Jr. | |
| dc.date | 2017-04-01T19:50:22Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-09T07:33:25Z | |
| dc.description | Given the relative importance of the Chesapeake Bay hard blue crab fishery to the U.S. blue crab fishery , this paper analyzes ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs landed in this region. The purpose is to evaluate alternative methods of forecasting ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs in the Bay; both individual methods (trend extrapolation, econometric, and time-series) and composite methods. Examining the mean squared errors for the individual methods, the time-series model performs the best, with the econometric model slightly better than the trend extrapolation model. None of the composite methods outperforms the time-series model, although in some cases the differences are slight. Nevertheless, the time-series trend extrapolation composite outperforms all other models in identifying turning points. Generally speaking, it would appear that ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs possess strong time dependencies , and consequently, better forecasts occur with time-series models than with econometric models. | |
| dc.identifier | doi:10.22004/ag.econ.159265 | |
| dc.identifier | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/159265/files/Forecasting%20ex-vessel.pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/159265 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/589599 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | ||
| dc.source | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/159265 | |
| dc.title | Forecasting Ex-Vessel Prices for Hard Blue Crabs in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Individual and Composite Methods | |
| dc.type | Text |