Forecasting Ex-Vessel Prices for Hard Blue Crabs in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Individual and Composite Methods
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Given the relative importance of the Chesapeake Bay hard blue crab fishery to the U.S.
blue crab fishery , this paper analyzes ex-vessel prices for hard blue crabs landed in this
region. The purpose is to evaluate alternative methods of forecasting ex-vessel prices for
hard blue crabs in the Bay; both individual methods (trend extrapolation, econometric,
and time-series) and composite methods. Examining the mean squared errors for the
individual methods, the time-series model performs the best, with the econometric model
slightly better than the trend extrapolation model. None of the composite methods
outperforms the time-series model, although in some cases the differences are slight.
Nevertheless, the time-series trend extrapolation composite outperforms all other models
in identifying turning points. Generally speaking, it would appear that ex-vessel prices for
hard blue crabs possess strong time dependencies , and consequently, better forecasts
occur with time-series models than with econometric models.