Looking Beyond Averages in the Trade and Poverty Debate
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World Bank, Washington, D.C.
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There has been much debate about how
much poor people in developing countries gain from trade
openness, as one aspect of "globalization." The
author views the issue through both "macro" and
"micro" empirical lenses. The macro lens uses
cross-country comparisons and aggregate time series data.
The micro lens uses household-level data combined with
structural modeling of the impacts of specific trade
reforms. The author presents case studies for China and
Morocco. Both the macro and micro approaches cast doubt on
some wide generalizations from both sides of the
globalization debate. Additionally the micro lens indicates
considerable heterogeneity in the welfare impacts of trade
openness, with both gainers and losers among the poor. The
author identifies a number of covariates of the individual
gains. The results point to the importance of combining
trade reforms with well-designed social protection policies.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE POVERTY, ADDITIVE EFFECTS, ADVERSE EFFECTS, ADVERSE IMPACTS, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURE, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR, CPI, ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPORTS, EXTREME POVERTY, FAMILIES, FARM INCOME, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH CARE, IMPORTS, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INFLATION, INFLATION RATE, INNOVATION, INVOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT, LEARNING, LIVING STANDARDS, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MIGRATION, OIL, POLICY CHANGES, POOR, POVERTY GAP INDEX, POVERTY IMPACTS, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGES, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTION INPUTS, PRODUCTIVITY, PURCHASING POWER, QUOTAS, REAL INCOME, RURAL POVERTY, SOCIAL IMPACTS, SQUARED POVERTY GAP INDEX, TARGETING, TARGETING MECHANISMS, TARIFF BARRIERS, TAXATION, TIME SERIES, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE REFORMS, UTILITY FUNCTION, VALUATION, WAGE RATES, WAGES, WELFARE EFFECTS, WELFARE GAINS, WHOLESALE PRICES, WORKERS, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO