The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade

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dc.creatorCalì, Massimiliano
dc.creatorHarake, Wissam
dc.creatorHassan, Fadi
dc.creatorStruck, Clemens
dc.date2015-05-19T20:08:05Z
dc.date2015-05-19T20:08:05Z
dc.date2015-04
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:46:37Z
dc.descriptionThe devastating civil war in Syria is arguably one of the major civil conflicts in recent times. The conflict started with protests in March 2011 and soon after escalated to a violent internal war with no end in sight to this date. The conflict has by the end of 2014 caused well in excess of 150,000 fatalities, and 6 million internally displaced people (UN), and led 3 million refugees to move out of the country (UNHCR). Beyond the human tragedy, the conflict has disrupted the functioning of the economy in many ways. It has destroyed infrastructure, prevented children from going to school, closed factories and deterred investments and trade. The economic effects of the war extend beyond the country’s borders affecting also the neighboring countries. In particular trade is one of the main channels through which the effects of the crisis are transmitted to neighboring countries. For example, the demand for goods and services in Syria is likely to have fallen thus affecting the many exporters to Syria in neighboring countries. Moreover, to the extent that Syria has become harder to cross, the war may have made trade through Syria more difficult. At the same time producers in neighboring countries may have replaced Syrian producers in Syria and in other markets as their productive assets in Syria were destroyed. This report examines the effects of the Syrian war on the Lebanese economy via one of the most important channels through which the economic impact of the war occurs, i.e. the trade channel. In doing so, it partly updates and extends the previous economic assessment of World Bank (2013b) carried out last year. Focusing specifically on trade allows us to examine in more depth the trade effects than that report was able to do. Indeed, we go beyond the effects on aggregate and sectoral imports and exports to also examine the effects on exports at firms’ level, comparing the effects in Lebanon with those in other neighboring countries, including Jordan, Turkey and Iraq.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/04/24424427/impact-syrian-conflict-lebanese-trade
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/21914
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/21914
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/410819
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectTRADE VOLUMES
dc.subjectTRANSPORT SECTOR
dc.subjectPUBLIC PERCEPTION
dc.subjectMULTILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectPRODUCTION
dc.subjectTRADE EFFECTS
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT
dc.subjectLAGS
dc.subjectEXPORT SECTORS
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectALTERNATIVE ROUTES
dc.subjectVEHICLES
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY OF DEMAND
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKET
dc.subjectTREND
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectTRADE FLOWS
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectWELFARE
dc.subjectINCENTIVES
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectVARIABLES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectTRAFFIC
dc.subjectINPUTS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTRADE PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectROUTES
dc.subjectPAYMENTS
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectTOURISM INDUSTRY
dc.subjectAIR
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectFREE TRADE
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectTRENDS
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectDRIVERS
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTRADE IN GOODS
dc.subjectINFLUENCE
dc.subjectROAD
dc.subjectCOSTS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectTELECOMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectTRANSPORT
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectTRANSPORT ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectCUSTOMS
dc.subjectBASE YEAR
dc.subjectEXTERNALITIES
dc.subjectGLOBALIZATION
dc.subjectMARKETS
dc.subjectWTO
dc.subjectTRUE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectSUBURBS
dc.subjectTRANSPORT EQUIPMENT
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENT
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectROUTE
dc.subjectFUELS
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectEXPORT VALUE
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectLEADING INDICATORS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectDRIVING
dc.subjectVALUE ADDED
dc.subjectTRAVEL
dc.subjectTRANSIT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectTRADE COSTS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectVALUE
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectLAND TRANSPORT
dc.subjectCREDIT
dc.subjectIMPORT VALUES
dc.subjectFORMAL ANALYSIS
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectEXPORT PRODUCTS
dc.subjectDEMAND
dc.subjectMODAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM
dc.subjectECONOMY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVE ASSETS
dc.subjectTOURISM
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectENDOGENOUS VARIABLES
dc.subjectCAR
dc.subjectCROSSING
dc.subjectTRADE DATA
dc.subjectEXPORT SECTOR
dc.subjectTRADE
dc.subjectAIR TRANSPORT
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGOODS
dc.subjectTHEORY
dc.subjectEMBARGO
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectBILATERAL TRADE
dc.subjectHOTELS
dc.subjectFATALITIES
dc.subjectFUEL
dc.subjectTRANSPORT SYSTEM
dc.subjectINVESTMENTS
dc.subjectGDP DEFLATOR
dc.subjectTRANSPORT COSTS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectDIESEL
dc.subjectAGGREGATE EXPORTS
dc.subjectSAFETY
dc.subjectADVERSE EFFECTS
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR GOODS
dc.subjectFREIGHT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURES
dc.subjectNEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES
dc.titleThe Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade
dc.typeReport
dc.typeRapport
dc.typeInforme

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