The Impact of the Syrian Conflict on Lebanese Trade
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The devastating civil war in Syria is
arguably one of the major civil conflicts in recent times.
The conflict started with protests in March 2011 and soon
after escalated to a violent internal war with no end in
sight to this date. The conflict has by the end of 2014
caused well in excess of 150,000 fatalities, and 6 million
internally displaced people (UN), and led 3 million refugees
to move out of the country (UNHCR). Beyond the human
tragedy, the conflict has disrupted the functioning of the
economy in many ways. It has destroyed infrastructure,
prevented children from going to school, closed factories
and deterred investments and trade. The economic effects of
the war extend beyond the country’s borders affecting also
the neighboring countries. In particular trade is one of the
main channels through which the effects of the crisis are
transmitted to neighboring countries. For example, the
demand for goods and services in Syria is likely to have
fallen thus affecting the many exporters to Syria in
neighboring countries. Moreover, to the extent that Syria
has become harder to cross, the war may have made trade
through Syria more difficult. At the same time producers in
neighboring countries may have replaced Syrian producers in
Syria and in other markets as their productive assets in
Syria were destroyed. This report examines the effects of
the Syrian war on the Lebanese economy via one of the most
important channels through which the economic impact of the
war occurs, i.e. the trade channel. In doing so, it partly
updates and extends the previous economic assessment of
World Bank (2013b) carried out last year. Focusing
specifically on trade allows us to examine in more depth the
trade effects than that report was able to do. Indeed, we go
beyond the effects on aggregate and sectoral imports and
exports to also examine the effects on exports at firms’
level, comparing the effects in Lebanon with those in other
neighboring countries, including Jordan, Turkey and Iraq.
Palabras clave
LIVING STANDARDS, TRADE VOLUMES, TRANSPORT SECTOR, PUBLIC PERCEPTION, MULTILATERAL TRADE, PRODUCTION, TRADE EFFECTS, ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORT, LAGS, EXPORT SECTORS, REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS, ALTERNATIVE ROUTES, VEHICLES, TRADE BARRIERS, REAL GDP, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, EXPORTS, DOMESTIC MARKET, TREND, ELASTICITY, TRADE FLOWS, EXPORTERS, WELFARE, INCENTIVES, EQUILIBRIUM, DISTRIBUTION, VARIABLES, DOMESTIC PRICE, TRAFFIC, INPUTS, TAX, TRADE PERFORMANCE, ROUTES, PAYMENTS, WEALTH, TOURISM INDUSTRY, AIR, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, FREE TRADE, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, TRENDS, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, DRIVERS, SAFETY NETS, TRADE AGREEMENTS, CENTRAL BANK, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, DEVELOPMENT, TRADE IN GOODS, INFLUENCE, ROAD, COSTS, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, EXPORT GROWTH, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TRANSPORT, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, TRANSPORT ACTIVITIES, CUSTOMS, BASE YEAR, EXTERNALITIES, GLOBALIZATION, MARKETS, WTO, TRUE, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, IMPORTS, SUBURBS, TRANSPORT EQUIPMENT, TRADE AGREEMENT, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, ROUTE, FUELS, INFRASTRUCTURE, EXPORT VALUE, UNEMPLOYMENT, LEADING INDICATORS, CONSUMPTION, HUMAN CAPITAL, DRIVING, VALUE ADDED, TRAVEL, TRANSIT, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, TRADE COSTS, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, FINANCIAL CRISIS, VALUE, COMPETITIVENESS, LAND TRANSPORT, CREDIT, IMPORT VALUES, FORMAL ANALYSIS, TRADE DEFICIT, EXPORT PRODUCTS, DEMAND, MODAL TRANSPORT SYSTEM, ECONOMY, AGRICULTURE, PRODUCTIVE ASSETS, TOURISM, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, CAR, CROSSING, TRADE DATA, EXPORT SECTOR, TRADE, AIR TRANSPORT, GDP, GOODS, THEORY, EMBARGO, GROWTH RATE, BILATERAL TRADE, HOTELS, FATALITIES, FUEL, TRANSPORT SYSTEM, INVESTMENTS, GDP DEFLATOR, TRANSPORT COSTS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, DIESEL, AGGREGATE EXPORTS, SAFETY, ADVERSE EFFECTS, DEMAND FOR GOODS, FREIGHT, INFRASTRUCTURES, NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES