Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

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dc.creatorFukase, Emiko
dc.creatorMartin, Will
dc.date2014-06-26T22:24:57Z
dc.date2014-06-26T22:24:57Z
dc.date2014-06
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:40:53Z
dc.descriptionThis paper uses resource-based cereal equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's demand and supply for food. Although demand for food calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of countries, China's demand growth appears to have been broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side, output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth associated with income growth and on the country's agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production dynamics suggest that China's current income level falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to decline as China's population growth and dietary transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity growth through further investment in research and development, and expansion in farm size and increased mechanization, as well as sustainable management of agricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it is primarily China that will feed China in the 21st century.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/06/19686638/feed-china-21st-century-income-growth-food-demand-supply-china
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/18808
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6926
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/409017
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6926
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL INPUTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL LAND
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL POLICY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL R & D
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL R&D
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL RESEARCH
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANIMAL
dc.subjectANIMAL FEED
dc.subjectANIMAL FEEDS
dc.subjectANIMAL PRODUCT
dc.subjectANIMAL PRODUCT CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectANIMAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectANIMAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectANIMALS
dc.subjectARABLE LAND
dc.subjectARBITRAGE
dc.subjectBEEF
dc.subjectBEEF PRODUCTION
dc.subjectBEVERAGES
dc.subjectBREEDING
dc.subjectBREEDING ANIMALS
dc.subjectBREEDING STOCK
dc.subjectCA
dc.subjectCALORIE INTAKE
dc.subjectCALVES
dc.subjectCARBOHYDRATES
dc.subjectCARCASS WEIGHT
dc.subjectCATTLE
dc.subjectCEREAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectCEREAL YIELD
dc.subjectCEREALS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATIC CHANGE
dc.subjectCOMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION DATA
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION INCREASES
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION PER CAPITA
dc.subjectCOOKING
dc.subjectCORN
dc.subjectCOWS
dc.subjectCROP PRODUCTS
dc.subjectCROPLAND
dc.subjectDAIRY
dc.subjectDAIRY PRODUCTS
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR FOOD
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR MEAT
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDIET
dc.subjectDIETARY PATTERNS
dc.subjectDIMINISHING RETURNS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC COOPERATION
dc.subjectECONOMIC HISTORY
dc.subjectECONOMIES OF SCALE
dc.subjectEDIBLE OILS
dc.subjectEGG
dc.subjectEGGS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION
dc.subjectEXPANSION OF IRRIGATION
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXTERNALITIES
dc.subjectFARM
dc.subjectFARM INCOMES
dc.subjectFARM LABOR
dc.subjectFARM SECTOR
dc.subjectFARM SIZE
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFARMS
dc.subjectFATTENING
dc.subjectFEED COMPETITION
dc.subjectFEED CONVERSION
dc.subjectFEED CROPS
dc.subjectFEED GRAINS
dc.subjectFEED PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFEED USE
dc.subjectFEEDING
dc.subjectFEEDS
dc.subjectFEEDSTOCK
dc.subjectFERMENTATION
dc.subjectFISH
dc.subjectFODDER
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
dc.subjectFOOD DEMAND
dc.subjectFOOD GRAINS
dc.subjectFOOD INSECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD OUTPUT
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY
dc.subjectFOOD STAPLES
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLIES
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectFOODS
dc.subjectFORAGE
dc.subjectFORAGE CROPS
dc.subjectFRUIT
dc.subjectFRUITS
dc.subjectFUTURE RESEARCH
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectGLOBAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
dc.subjectGOAT MEAT
dc.subjectGRAINS
dc.subjectGRAZING
dc.subjectGRAZING LAND
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectIFPRI
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectIRRIGATION
dc.subjectLAMB
dc.subjectLAND AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectLAND MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectLAND PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectLAND RESOURCES
dc.subjectLIVELIHOODS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK DATA
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK FEED
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK PRODUCTION
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK PRODUCTS
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK SECTOR
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK STATISTICS
dc.subjectLOW INCOME
dc.titleWho Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China

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