Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century? Income Growth and Food Demand and Supply in China
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper uses resource-based cereal
equivalent measures to explore the evolution of China's
demand and supply for food. Although demand for food
calories is probably close to its peak level in China, the
ongoing dietary shift to animal-based foods, induced by
income growth, is likely to impose considerable pressure on
agricultural resources. Estimating the relationship between
income growth and food demand with data from a wide range of
countries, China's demand growth appears to have been
broadly similar to the global trend. On the supply side,
output of food depends strongly on the productivity growth
associated with income growth and on the country's
agricultural land endowment, with China appearing to be an
out-performer. The analyses of income-consumption-production
dynamics suggest that China's current income level
falls in the range where consumption growth outstrips
production growth, but that the gap is likely to begin to
decline as China's population growth and dietary
transition slow down. Continued agricultural productivity
growth through further investment in research and
development, and expansion in farm size and increased
mechanization, as well as sustainable management of
agricultural resources, are vital for ensuring that it is
primarily China that will feed China in the 21st century.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY, AGRICULTURAL INPUTS, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL R & D, AGRICULTURAL R&D, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ANIMAL, ANIMAL FEED, ANIMAL FEEDS, ANIMAL PRODUCT, ANIMAL PRODUCT CONSUMPTION, ANIMAL PRODUCTION, ANIMAL PRODUCTS, ANIMALS, ARABLE LAND, ARBITRAGE, BEEF, BEEF PRODUCTION, BEVERAGES, BREEDING, BREEDING ANIMALS, BREEDING STOCK, CA, CALORIE INTAKE, CALVES, CARBOHYDRATES, CARCASS WEIGHT, CATTLE, CEREAL PRODUCTS, CEREAL YIELD, CEREALS, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATIC CHANGE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, CONSUMERS, CONSUMPTION DATA, CONSUMPTION INCREASES, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, COOKING, CORN, COWS, CROP PRODUCTS, CROPLAND, DAIRY, DAIRY PRODUCTS, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND FOR MEAT, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIET, DIETARY PATTERNS, DIMINISHING RETURNS, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC DEMAND, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC COOPERATION, ECONOMIC HISTORY, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, EDIBLE OILS, EGG, EGGS, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, EXPANSION OF IRRIGATION, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, FARM, FARM INCOMES, FARM LABOR, FARM SECTOR, FARM SIZE, FARMERS, FARMS, FATTENING, FEED COMPETITION, FEED CONVERSION, FEED CROPS, FEED GRAINS, FEED PRODUCTION, FEED USE, FEEDING, FEEDS, FEEDSTOCK, FERMENTATION, FISH, FODDER, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, FOOD DEMAND, FOOD GRAINS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD OUTPUT, FOOD POLICY, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SELF-SUFFICIENCY, FOOD STAPLES, FOOD SUPPLIES, FOOD SUPPLY, FOODS, FORAGE, FORAGE CROPS, FRUIT, FRUITS, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION, GLOBAL LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, GOAT MEAT, GRAINS, GRAZING, GRAZING LAND, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, IFPRI, INCOME, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, IRRIGATION, LAMB, LAND AVAILABILITY, LAND MANAGEMENT, LAND PRODUCTIVITY, LAND RESOURCES, LIVELIHOODS, LIVESTOCK, LIVESTOCK DATA, LIVESTOCK FEED, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTIVITY, LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS, LIVESTOCK SECTOR, LIVESTOCK STATISTICS, LOW INCOME