Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks

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dc.creatorWorld Bank
dc.date2014-06-12T21:21:21Z
dc.date2014-06-12T21:21:21Z
dc.date2014-04
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:53:21Z
dc.descriptionTajikistan's economy grew at higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances fueled private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, weaker external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record low because of the limited increase in food prices and stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be different than official statistics suggests because of soft budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and debt position remains weak because of the country's remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high dependence on concessional financing, and large infrastructure. In addition, amortization of existing foreign debt is increasing sharply. Real wage growth in excess of productivity growth further deteriorated the country competitiveness. Weak governance and financial sector accountability and the poor business climate hold back development in the financial sector and in the government debt market. The government is aiming for at least 7.5 percent growth in the medium term as well as a reduction in the poverty headcount to 30 percent by 2015 and further to 20 percent by 2020. In order to meet these objectives, the government needs to accelerate reforms aimed at improving the institutional environment for private-sector-led growth and job creation. Future growth and poverty reduction will depend on its success in overcoming the binding constraints to diversified development and in reducing the costs and increasing the profitability of potential private investments.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/04/19401048/tajikistan-strong-growth-rising-risks
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/18659
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/18659
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/412503
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC
dc.relationTajikistan economic report;no. 5
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectACCOUNTING STANDARDS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectAMORTIZATION
dc.subjectARREARS
dc.subjectAUDITS
dc.subjectAVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectBANKING SECTOR
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEM
dc.subjectBORROWER
dc.subjectBUDGET DEFICIT
dc.subjectBUDGETING
dc.subjectBUFFERS
dc.subjectCAPACITY CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectCAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subjectCAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectCOAL
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCONSOLIDATION
dc.subjectCONSUMER BASKET
dc.subjectCONSUMER GOODS
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION GROWTH
dc.subjectCPI
dc.subjectCREDIT DECISIONS
dc.subjectCREDIT GROWTH
dc.subjectCREDIT INFORMATION
dc.subjectCREDIT INFORMATION BUREAU
dc.subjectCREDIT RISK
dc.subjectCREDITOR
dc.subjectCREDITORS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subjectCUSTOMS DUTIES
dc.subjectCUSTOMS DUTY
dc.subjectDEFAULT RATES
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHICS
dc.subjectDEPOSIT
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT BANK
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE POLICIES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT COMMODITIES
dc.subjectEXPORT GOODS
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKET
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectEXPORT PERFORMANCE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEMAND
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INFORMATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFIXED INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFLOATING EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectFLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES
dc.subjectFOREIGN DEBT
dc.subjectFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN RESERVES
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectFORGIVENESS
dc.subjectFUTURES
dc.subjectFUTURES MARKETS
dc.subjectGLOBAL MARKET
dc.subjectGLOBAL MARKETS
dc.subjectGOVERNANCE ISSUES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROSS CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMMOVABLE PROPERTY
dc.subjectIMPORT
dc.subjectIMPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME LEVEL
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION DYNAMICS
dc.subjectINFORMATION ON BORROWERS
dc.subjectINFORMATION SYSTEM
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL PRICES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVENTORY
dc.subjectINVESTING
dc.subjectINVESTMENT BANKS
dc.subjectINVESTMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectINVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLABOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectLEGAL FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectLENDERS
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLOAN AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectLOAN PROCESSING
dc.subjectLOAN RATE
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectLOCAL MARKET
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMAJOR CURRENCIES
dc.subjectMARKET CONCENTRATION
dc.subjectMARKET DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectMARKET REFORMS
dc.subjectMARKET REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectMATURITY
dc.subjectMICROFINANCE
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectNOMINAL DEPRECIATION
dc.subjectNOMINAL DEVALUATION
dc.subjectNON-PERFORMING LOAN
dc.subjectNON-PERFORMING LOANS
dc.subjectNONPERFORMING LOANS
dc.subjectNPL
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectPRODUCERS
dc.subjectPRODUCTION COSTS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectRATE OF GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL WAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL WAGES
dc.subjectREGISTRATION SYSTEM
dc.subjectREGULATORY REFORMS
dc.subjectREMITTANCE
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRESOURCE MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRETURN
dc.subjectRETURN ON ASSETS
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectSECTOR REFORM
dc.subjectSECTOR REFORMS
dc.subjectSHORTFALL
dc.subjectSLOWDOWN
dc.subjectSLOWDOWNS
dc.subjectSOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectSTABLE EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectSTABLE GROWTH
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSTRUCTURAL REFORMS
dc.subjectSUPPLY SIDE
dc.subjectSURPLUS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX CODE
dc.subjectTOTAL DEPOSITS
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPORT
dc.subjectTOTAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectTOTAL IMPORT
dc.subjectTOTAL IMPORTS
dc.subjectTRADE ACCOUNT
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE BARRIERS
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectTRADE FACILITATION
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectTRADING PARTNERS
dc.subjectTRANSMISSION MECHANISM
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTRANSPORTATION COSTS
dc.subjectTREASURIES
dc.subjectTREASURY
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectVULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWAREHOUSE
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.titleTajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks

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