Tajikistan : Strong Growth, Rising Risks
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Autores
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Washington, DC
Resumen
Descripción
Tajikistan's economy grew at
higher-than-projected rate of 7.4 percent in 2013 on the
back of record high inflow of remittances. High remittances
fueled private consumption and investment. Meanwhile, weaker
external demand and lower prices for aluminum and cotton
adversely affected exports and resulted in a widening of the
current account deficit. Inflation was reduced to a record
low because of the limited increase in food prices and
stable exchange rate. The fiscal deficit widened because of
higher investment expenditures and a reduction in nontax
revenues. The overall fiscal picture is likely to be
different than official statistics suggests because of soft
budget constraints on state-owned enterprises, continued
directed lending by banks, and other quasi-fiscal risks. The
economy remains vulnerable to shocks, and the fiscal and
debt position remains weak because of the country's
remittance-driven growth model, narrow export base, high
dependence on concessional financing, and large
infrastructure. In addition, amortization of existing
foreign debt is increasing sharply. Real wage growth in
excess of productivity growth further deteriorated the
country competitiveness. Weak governance and financial
sector accountability and the poor business climate hold
back development in the financial sector and in the
government debt market. The government is aiming for at
least 7.5 percent growth in the medium term as well as a
reduction in the poverty headcount to 30 percent by 2015 and
further to 20 percent by 2020. In order to meet these
objectives, the government needs to accelerate reforms aimed
at improving the institutional environment for
private-sector-led growth and job creation. Future growth
and poverty reduction will depend on its success in
overcoming the binding constraints to diversified
development and in reducing the costs and increasing the
profitability of potential private investments.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING STANDARDS, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AMORTIZATION, ARREARS, AUDITS, AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATE, BANKING SECTOR, BANKING SYSTEM, BORROWER, BUDGET DEFICIT, BUDGETING, BUFFERS, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, CAPITAL FORMATION, CAPITAL GOODS, COAL, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSOLIDATION, CONSUMER BASKET, CONSUMER GOODS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CPI, CREDIT DECISIONS, CREDIT GROWTH, CREDIT INFORMATION, CREDIT INFORMATION BUREAU, CREDIT RISK, CREDITOR, CREDITORS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, CUSTOMS DUTIES, CUSTOMS DUTY, DEFAULT RATES, DEMOGRAPHICS, DEPOSIT, DEPOSITS, DEVALUATION, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ENVIRONMENTAL, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS, EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT COMMODITIES, EXPORT GOODS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT MARKET, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL DEMAND, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL INFORMATION, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION, FINANCIAL MARKETS, FISCAL BALANCE, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL POLICY, FIXED INVESTMENT, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE, FLOATING EXCHANGE RATE REGIME, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES, FOREIGN DEBT, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN RESERVES, FORESTRY, FORGIVENESS, FUTURES, FUTURES MARKETS, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL MARKETS, GOVERNANCE ISSUES, GOVERNMENT DEBT, GOVERNMENT DEBT MARKET, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS CAPITAL FORMATION, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMMOVABLE PROPERTY, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORTS, INCOME LEVEL, INFLATION, INFLATION DYNAMICS, INFORMATION ON BORROWERS, INFORMATION SYSTEM, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL PRICES, INTERNATIONAL RESERVES, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORY, INVESTING, INVESTMENT BANKS, INVESTMENT EXPENDITURES, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, LABOR FORCE, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LEGAL FRAMEWORK, LENDERS, LIQUIDITY, LOAN AGREEMENTS, LOAN PROCESSING, LOAN RATE, LOCAL CURRENCY, LOCAL MARKET, MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MAJOR CURRENCIES, MARKET CONCENTRATION, MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, MARKET REFORMS, MARKET REQUIREMENTS, MATURITY, MICROFINANCE, MONETARY POLICY, NATIONAL BANK, NOMINAL DEPRECIATION, NOMINAL DEVALUATION, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, NONPERFORMING LOANS, NPL, PENSIONS, POPULATION GROWTH, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIVATE CONSUMPTION, PRIVATE INVESTMENTS, PRODUCERS, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC FINANCE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC SPENDING, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, REAL WAGE GROWTH, REAL WAGES, REGISTRATION SYSTEM, REGULATORY REFORMS, REMITTANCE, REMITTANCES, RESERVES, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, RETURN, RETURN ON ASSETS, RETURNS, RISK MANAGEMENT, SECTOR REFORM, SECTOR REFORMS, SHORTFALL, SLOWDOWN, SLOWDOWNS, SOFT BUDGET CONSTRAINTS, STABLE EXCHANGE RATE, STABLE GROWTH, STOCKS, STRUCTURAL REFORMS, SUPPLY SIDE, SURPLUS, TAX, TAX CODE, TOTAL DEPOSITS, TOTAL EXPORT, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORT, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE ACCOUNT, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE FACILITATION, TRADING, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANSMISSION MECHANISM, TRANSPARENCY, TRANSPORTATION COSTS, TREASURIES, TREASURY, UNCERTAINTY, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS, WAGES, WAREHOUSE, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD TRADE