The Persistence of (Subnational) Fortune : Geography, Agglomeration, and Institutions in the New World
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Using subnational historical data, this
paper establishes the within country persistence of economic
activity in the New World over the last half millennium. The
paper constructs a data set incorporating measures of
pre-colonial population density, new measures of present
regional per capita income and population, and a
comprehensive set of locational fundamentals. These
fundamentals are shown to have explanatory power: native
populations throughout the hemisphere were found in more
livable and productive places. It is then shown that high
pre-colonial density areas tend to be dense today:
population agglomerations persist. The data and historical
evidence suggest this is due partly to locational
fundamentals, but also to classic agglomeration effects:
colonialists established settlements near existing native
populations for reasons of labor, trade, knowledge and
defense. Further, high density (historically prosperous)
areas also tend to have higher incomes today, and largely
due to agglomeration effects: fortune persists for the
United States and most of Latin America. Finally extractive
institutions, in this case, slavery, reduce persistence
even if they do not overwhelm other forces in its favor.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, AIR, AIR CONDITIONING, AIR TRANSPORT, ARTISANS, AVERAGE INCOME, AVERAGE INCOMES, AVERAGE SHARE, BANKRUPTCY, BASIC NEEDS, CAPITAL INVESTMENT, CENSUSES, CIVIL WAR, COMMERCE, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONCENTRATION OF POPULATION, COUNTRY LEVEL, COUNTRY REGRESSIONS, CURRENT POPULATION, DATA SET, DATA SETS, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT OUTCOMES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISEASES, DRAINAGE, DRIVING, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ECONOMIC REVIEW, ECONOMIC STUDIES, ECONOMICS RESEARCH, ELASTICITY, EMPIRICAL RESULTS, EXISTING POPULATION, EXPLANATORY POWER, EXPORTS, EXTERNALITIES, FARMING AREAS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FUEL, FUNCTIONAL FORM, FUNCTIONAL FORMS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GEOGRAPHICAL CONTROLS, GROWTH DYNAMICS, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH THEORY, HEAVY RELIANCE, HISTORICAL DATA, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD LEVEL, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN SETTLEMENT, IMMIGRATION, INCOME DATA, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCREASING RETURNS, INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE, INDIGENOUS PEOPLE, INDIGENOUS PEOPLES, INDIGENOUS POPULATIONS, INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION, INEQUALITY, INFORMATION SYSTEM, INNOVATION, INSTITUTION, LABOR FORCE, LAND TENURE, LARGE POPULATION, LARGE POPULATIONS, LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT, LOCAL DEVELOPMENT, LOCAL ECONOMY, LOCALIZATION, MACROECONOMICS, MANUFACTURING, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES, MARKET SHARE, MEAN VALUE, MIDDLEMEN, MODE OF TRANSPORTATION, MONETARY ECONOMICS, NATIONAL BOUNDARIES, NATIONAL GOVERNMENT, NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS, NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE, NATIONAL LEVEL, NATIONAL POLICIES, NATIVE POPULATION, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, NEGATIVE COEFFICIENT, NEGATIVE COEFFICIENTS, NEGATIVE CORRELATION, NEGATIVE IMPACT, NEGATIVE RELATIONSHIP, NET EFFECT, NETWORKS, NEW TECHNOLOGIES, OPEN ACCESS, PATH DEPENDENCE, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL ECONOMY CONSIDERATIONS, POLITICAL POWER, POPULATION CENTER, POPULATION DENSITIES, POPULATION DENSITY, POPULATION ESTIMATES, POPULATION SETTLEMENTS, POSITIVE COEFFICIENT, POSITIVE CORRELATION, POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES, POSITIVE RELATIONSHIP, PRODUCTIVITY, PROGRESS, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, PUBLIC GOOD, PUBLIC GOODS, RAILROAD, RAILROADS, RAILWAY, REGIONAL DIFFERENCES, REGIONAL LEVEL, REGIONAL POPULATION, RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, RESPECT, RESULT, ROUTE, ROUTES, SATELLITE, SEA LEVEL, SEX, SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION, SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE, SIGNIFICANT RELATIONSHIP, SITES, SOCIAL STRUCTURE, SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION, TAX, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, TRANSLATION, TRANSPORT, TRANSPORT SERVICES, TRANSPORTATION, TRAUMA, TRUE, TUNNEL, VALUE ADDED, WEALTH, WEB