Live and Feeder Cattle Options Markets: Returns, Risk, and Volatility Forecasting
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This paper examines returns from holding 30- and 90-day call and put positions, and the
forecasting performance of implied volatility in the live and feeder cattle options markets.
Implied volatility is an upwardly biased and inefficient predictor of realized volatility,
with bias most pronounced in live cattle. While significant returns exist from several
positions, strategies are strongly affected by drifts in futures prices. However, returns
from live cattle puts are persistent, and evidence from 30-day straddle returns indicates
the live cattle market overprices volatility. Overpricing is consistent with volatility risk,
the effect of which is magnified by extreme market conditions.