Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence

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dc.creatorCali, Massimiliano
dc.creatorMulabdic, Alen
dc.date2014-12-03T21:15:13Z
dc.date2014-12-03T21:15:13Z
dc.date2014-11
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:52:40Z
dc.descriptionThis paper revisits and expands the evidence on the impact of trade shocks on intra-state conflict with a large sample of developing countries in the 1960-2010 period. The results suggest that increases in the prices of a country's exported commodities raise the country's risk of civil conflict and its duration. The effect on conflict risk is mainly driven by the price of point-source commodities, in line with the rapacity effect theory of conflict. However, the paper does not find support for the opportunity cost theory via exported commodities. The analysis also finds that intense trading with contiguous countries is associated with lower duration of intra-state conflict, consistent with the idea that such trade reduces the incentive of contiguous countries to fuel conflict in their neighbor. Trading with neighbors is also associated with a lower risk of conflict, when such trade occurs under trade agreements. By contrast, neither imported commodity prices nor the economic cycle in export markets appears to exert any influence on the probability or duration of conflict. The paper identifies several conditions under which changes in the value of exported commodities cease to matter for conflict probability.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/11/20433130/trade-civil-conflict-revisiting-cross-country-evidence
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/20640
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7125
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/412333
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank Group, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7125
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectBATTLE
dc.subjectCIVIL CONFLICT
dc.subjectCIVIL CONFLICTS
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR
dc.subjectCIVIL WAR VARIABLES
dc.subjectCIVIL WARS
dc.subjectCOMMODITIES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY EXPORT
dc.subjectCOMMODITY EXPORTS
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCOMPROMISES
dc.subjectCONFLICT
dc.subjectCONFLICT EPISODES
dc.subjectCONFLICT RESOLUTION
dc.subjectCONFLICT RISK
dc.subjectCONFLICTS
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCOUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS
dc.subjectCRISES
dc.subjectDATA SELECTION
dc.subjectDEATHS
dc.subjectDECOLONIZATION
dc.subjectDEGREES OF FREEDOM
dc.subjectDEMOCRACIES
dc.subjectDEMOCRACY
dc.subjectDEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectDEPENDENCE
dc.subjectDETERRENCE
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDIVIDEND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC ECONOMY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKETS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectDURATION OF CONFLICT
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectECONOMIC DOWNTURNS
dc.subjectECONOMIC INEQUALITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC RELATIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectELECTIONS
dc.subjectETHNIC DIVISIONS
dc.subjectETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION
dc.subjectETHNIC POLARIZATION
dc.subjectEXPORT MARKETS
dc.subjectEXPORT SECTOR
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCK
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFIGHTING
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOREIGN TRADE
dc.subjectFUTURE RESEARCH
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDPS
dc.subjectGLOBAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectGOOD GOVERNANCE
dc.subjectIMF
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME INEQUALITY
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCOME PER CAPITA
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINNOVATION
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
dc.subjectINTENSITY OF CONFLICT
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNAL CONFLICT
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectJOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION
dc.subjectLINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION
dc.subjectLINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION INDEX
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMICS
dc.subjectMARKET POTENTIAL
dc.subjectNATIONS
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectOPEN ACCESS
dc.subjectOPPORTUNITY COST
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectPEACE
dc.subjectPERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS
dc.subjectPOLARIZATION
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL REGIMES
dc.subjectPOLITICAL RISK
dc.subjectPOLITICAL STABILITY
dc.subjectPOLITICAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectPOLITICAL UNREST
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectREBEL
dc.subjectREBEL GROUPS
dc.subjectREBELLION
dc.subjectREBELLIONS
dc.subjectREBELS
dc.subjectRECONSTRUCTION
dc.subjectREGIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectREGRESSION ANALYSIS
dc.subjectRELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION
dc.subjectRESULT
dc.subjectRESULTS
dc.subjectRISK OF CONFLICT
dc.subjectRULE OF LAW
dc.subjectSOCIAL CONFLICT
dc.subjectSTATE CONFLICT
dc.subjectSTATE CONFLICTS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTHEORY OF CONFLICT
dc.subjectTRADE AGREEMENTS
dc.subjectTRADE FACILITATION
dc.subjectTRADE POLICY
dc.subjectTRADE RELATION
dc.subjectTRADE RELATIONS
dc.subjectTRANSMISSION
dc.subjectUSES
dc.subjectVIOLENCE
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectWEAPONS
dc.titleTrade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence

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