Trade and Civil Conflict : Revisiting the Cross-Country Evidence
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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This paper revisits and expands the
evidence on the impact of trade shocks on intra-state
conflict with a large sample of developing countries in the
1960-2010 period. The results suggest that increases in the
prices of a country's exported commodities raise the
country's risk of civil conflict and its duration. The
effect on conflict risk is mainly driven by the price of
point-source commodities, in line with the rapacity effect
theory of conflict. However, the paper does not find support
for the opportunity cost theory via exported commodities.
The analysis also finds that intense trading with contiguous
countries is associated with lower duration of intra-state
conflict, consistent with the idea that such trade reduces
the incentive of contiguous countries to fuel conflict in
their neighbor. Trading with neighbors is also associated
with a lower risk of conflict, when such trade occurs under
trade agreements. By contrast, neither imported commodity
prices nor the economic cycle in export markets appears to
exert any influence on the probability or duration of
conflict. The paper identifies several conditions under
which changes in the value of exported commodities cease to
matter for conflict probability.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURE, BATTLE, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL CONFLICTS, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WAR VARIABLES, CIVIL WARS, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY EXPORT, COMMODITY EXPORTS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, COMPROMISES, CONFLICT, CONFLICT EPISODES, CONFLICT RESOLUTION, CONFLICT RISK, CONFLICTS, CONSUMERS, COUNTRY FIXED EFFECTS, CRISES, DATA SELECTION, DEATHS, DECOLONIZATION, DEGREES OF FREEDOM, DEMOCRACIES, DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS, DEPENDENCE, DETERRENCE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DIVIDEND, DOMESTIC ECONOMY, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICES, DURATION OF CONFLICT, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS, ECONOMIC INEQUALITY, ECONOMIC RELATIONS, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, ELECTIONS, ETHNIC DIVISIONS, ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION, ETHNIC POLARIZATION, EXPORT MARKETS, EXPORT SECTOR, EXTERNAL SHOCK, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, FIGHTING, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOREIGN TRADE, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDPS, GLOBAL EXPORTS, GOOD GOVERNANCE, IMF, INCOME, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INCOME PER CAPITA, INCOMES, INNOVATION, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY, INTENSITY OF CONFLICT, INTEREST RATE, INTEREST RATES, INTERNAL CONFLICT, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION, LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION INDEX, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MACROECONOMICS, MARKET POTENTIAL, NATIONS, NATURAL RESOURCE, NATURAL RESOURCES, OPEN ACCESS, OPPORTUNITY COST, OUTPUT, PEACE, PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS, POLARIZATION, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLITICAL REGIMES, POLITICAL RISK, POLITICAL STABILITY, POLITICAL SYSTEM, POLITICAL UNREST, PRICE VOLATILITY, PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY, PUBLIC POLICY, REBEL, REBEL GROUPS, REBELLION, REBELLIONS, REBELS, RECONSTRUCTION, REGIONAL TRADE, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RELIGIOUS FRACTIONALIZATION, RESULT, RESULTS, RISK OF CONFLICT, RULE OF LAW, SOCIAL CONFLICT, STATE CONFLICT, STATE CONFLICTS, TAX, THEORY OF CONFLICT, TRADE AGREEMENTS, TRADE FACILITATION, TRADE POLICY, TRADE RELATION, TRADE RELATIONS, TRANSMISSION, USES, VIOLENCE, WEALTH, WEAPONS