Responding to Higher and More Volatile World Food Prices

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dc.creatorWorld Bank
dc.date2013-03-26T19:09:20Z
dc.date2013-03-26T19:09:20Z
dc.date2012-05
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:56:05Z
dc.descriptionFollowing the world food price spike in 2008 and again in 2011, there has been increased attention on better understanding the drivers of food prices, their impacts on the poor, and policy response options. This paper provides a simple model that closely simulates actual historical food price behavior around which the analysis of the drivers of food price levels, volatility, and the associated response options is derived. Future food prices are likely to remain higher than pre-2007 levels and recent price uncertainty is likely to continue for the foreseeable future. Accelerated use of food crops for industrial purposes (biofuels) continues to offset the slowing population growth effect on food demand. World food stocks remain at relatively low levels where the likelihood of price spikes is higher. Production gains may be harder to achieve in the future than in the past, with more limited space for area expansion, declining yield growth, and increases in weather variability. Suggested responses to reduce average food price levels are to (i) raise food crop yields, and their resilience, as the single most important action needed for an enduring solution to global food security; (ii) improve the rural investment climate to induce a private sector supply response; (iii) facilitate land markets to expand planted food crop areas and strengthen property rights to improve the use of existing cropped areas; (iv) better use price risk management tools; and (v) increase the responsiveness of the food system to price increases through better integrating markets to ensure world price signals reach more producers to induce a supply response. To reduce world food price volatility, suggested responses are to: (1) develop weather-tolerant crop varieties to reduce food production shocks; (2) improve management of food-grain stock purchases and releases to reduce, rather than amplify, local and world food price volatility; (3) shift to market-based biofuels policies (make biofuels mandates more flexible); (4) open trade across all markets to diversify short-term production shocks dissipating the associated price effects; and (5) improve market transparency to reduce market uncertainty and the associated large price corrections following revisions to market information (production, stocks, and trade). Suggested measures to reduce the negative impact of price shocks on food security are: (a) reduce taxes and tariffs (in some cases) to lower domestic prices, (b) short-term food and cash transfers to preserve purchasing power, and (c) support for agricultural production to try to prevent a next season shortfall that could add to local price increases.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2012/01/16355176/responding-higher-more-volatile-world-food-prices
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/12950
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/12950
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/413176
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWashington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectAGGREGATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectAGRIBUSINESS
dc.subjectAGRIBUSINESS LOGISTICS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL COMMODITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL GROWTH
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL MARKET
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL MARKETS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL POLICY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRACTICES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRICE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRICES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL RESEARCH
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CENTERS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTORS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectANIMAL FEEDS
dc.subjectANIMAL PRODUCTS
dc.subjectARBITRAGE
dc.subjectAVERAGE PRICE
dc.subjectAVERAGE PRICES
dc.subjectBANANAS
dc.subjectBEEF
dc.subjectBEVERAGES
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCEREAL IMPORTS
dc.subjectCEREAL PRICE
dc.subjectCEREALS
dc.subjectCOCOA
dc.subjectCOMMODITY EXCHANGES
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVE PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICE INDEX
dc.subjectCORN
dc.subjectCOTTON
dc.subjectCROP PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCROP ROTATIONS
dc.subjectCROP YIELDS
dc.subjectCULTIVATED AREAS
dc.subjectDAIRY
dc.subjectDAIRY PRODUCTS
dc.subjectDEMAND CURVE
dc.subjectDEMAND CURVES
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR FOOD
dc.subjectDEMAND GROWTH
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC ECONOMIES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC MARKETS
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICE
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectDRYING
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectEDIBLE OILS
dc.subjectENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT SECTORS
dc.subjectEXTENSION SERVICES
dc.subjectFARM
dc.subjectFARM INCOMES
dc.subjectFARM PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFARM PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFEED
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS
dc.subjectFOOD ACCESS
dc.subjectFOOD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectFOOD CROP
dc.subjectFOOD CROPS
dc.subjectFOOD DEMAND
dc.subjectFOOD EXPORT
dc.subjectFOOD EXPORTS
dc.subjectFOOD FOR WORK
dc.subjectFOOD GRAINS
dc.subjectFOOD INSECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD MARKETS
dc.subjectFOOD PREFERENCES
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE INFLATION
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subjectFOOD RESERVES
dc.subjectFOOD SAFETY
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD SHORTAGES
dc.subjectFOOD STAPLES
dc.subjectFOOD STOCKS
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLIES
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLY GROWTH
dc.subjectFOOD TRANSFERS
dc.subjectFUTURE PRICES
dc.subjectFUTURES
dc.subjectFUTURES CONTRACTS
dc.subjectFUTURES POSITION
dc.subjectGEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectGLOBAL EXPORTS
dc.subjectGLOBAL FOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectGRAIN
dc.subjectGRAIN PRICES
dc.subjectGRAIN PRODUCTION
dc.subjectGRAIN RESERVES
dc.subjectGRAINS
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROUNDNUT
dc.subjectGROUNDNUT OIL
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectICE
dc.subjectIMPORT TARIFFS
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINPUT PRICES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MARKETS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVENTORIES
dc.subjectINVESTMENT CLIMATE
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectLIVESTOCK
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCIES
dc.subjectLOGISTICAL SUPPORT
dc.subjectLOW-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMAIZE
dc.subjectMARKET ASSESSMENT
dc.subjectMARKET DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectMARKET EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectMARKET EXPECTATIONS
dc.subjectMARKET INFORMATION
dc.subjectMARKET INFRASTRUCTURE
dc.subjectMARKET INTEGRATION
dc.subjectMARKET PRICE
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMARKET TRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectMARKETING
dc.subjectMARKETING SYSTEMS
dc.subjectMEAL
dc.subjectMIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES
dc.subjectMILLING
dc.subjectMOBILIZATION
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMONOCULTURE
dc.subjectNATURAL RUBBER
dc.subjectOPTION PRICES
dc.subjectORANGES
dc.subjectOUTPUT
dc.subjectOUTPUTS
dc.subjectPACKAGING
dc.subjectPALM OIL
dc.subjectPIG MEAT
dc.subjectPORK
dc.subjectPOULTRY
dc.subjectPRICE BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGE
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE DISCOVERY
dc.subjectPRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND
dc.subjectPRICE FLUCTUATIONS
dc.subjectPRICE INCENTIVES
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASE
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRICE INDEX
dc.subjectPRICE INSTABILITY
dc.subjectPRICE LEVELS
dc.subjectPRICE POLICY
dc.subjectPRICE RISK
dc.subjectPRICE RISKS
dc.subjectPRICE SPREAD
dc.subjectPRICE STABILIZATION
dc.subjectPRICE UNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectPRODUCER ORGANIZATION
dc.subjectPRODUCER ORGANIZATIONS
dc.subjectPROPERTY RIGHTS
dc.subjectPROTEINS
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPURCHASING
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectRAW MATERIALS
dc.subjectREDUCTIONS IN TARIFFS
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGY
dc.subjectRETAIL
dc.subjectRICE
dc.subjectRICE PRICES
dc.subjectRISK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectSAFETY NET
dc.subjectSALE
dc.subjectSALES
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSECURITY RISKS
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSOYBEAN
dc.subjectSOYBEAN MEAL
dc.subjectSOYBEANS
dc.subjectSPOT MARKET
dc.subjectSPOT PRICES
dc.subjectSPREAD
dc.subjectSTOCK MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTE
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION EFFECT
dc.subjectSUGAR
dc.subjectSUGARCANE
dc.subjectSUPPLIER
dc.subjectSUPPLIERS
dc.subjectSUPPLY CHAIN
dc.subjectSUPPLY CHAINS
dc.subjectSUPPLY CURVE
dc.subjectSUPPLY SHOCK
dc.subjectSURPLUS
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTEA
dc.subjectTECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE
dc.subjectTRANSACTION
dc.subjectVOLUME
dc.subjectWAREHOUSE
dc.subjectWFP
dc.subjectWHEAT
dc.subjectWORLD FOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET PRICES
dc.subjectWORLD MARKETS
dc.subjectWORLD PRICE
dc.subjectWORLD PRICES
dc.subjectWORLD RICE
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION
dc.titleResponding to Higher and More Volatile World Food Prices

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