Responding to Higher and More Volatile World Food Prices
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Washington, DC
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Following the world food price spike in
2008 and again in 2011, there has been increased attention
on better understanding the drivers of food prices, their
impacts on the poor, and policy response options. This paper
provides a simple model that closely simulates actual
historical food price behavior around which the analysis of
the drivers of food price levels, volatility, and the
associated response options is derived. Future food prices
are likely to remain higher than pre-2007 levels and recent
price uncertainty is likely to continue for the foreseeable
future. Accelerated use of food crops for industrial
purposes (biofuels) continues to offset the slowing
population growth effect on food demand. World food stocks
remain at relatively low levels where the likelihood of
price spikes is higher. Production gains may be harder to
achieve in the future than in the past, with more limited
space for area expansion, declining yield growth, and
increases in weather variability. Suggested responses to
reduce average food price levels are to (i) raise food crop
yields, and their resilience, as the single most important
action needed for an enduring solution to global food
security; (ii) improve the rural investment climate to
induce a private sector supply response; (iii) facilitate
land markets to expand planted food crop areas and
strengthen property rights to improve the use of existing
cropped areas; (iv) better use price risk management tools;
and (v) increase the responsiveness of the food system to
price increases through better integrating markets to ensure
world price signals reach more producers to induce a supply
response. To reduce world food price volatility, suggested
responses are to: (1) develop weather-tolerant crop
varieties to reduce food production shocks; (2) improve
management of food-grain stock purchases and releases to
reduce, rather than amplify, local and world food price
volatility; (3) shift to market-based biofuels policies
(make biofuels mandates more flexible); (4) open trade
across all markets to diversify short-term production shocks
dissipating the associated price effects; and (5) improve
market transparency to reduce market uncertainty and the
associated large price corrections following revisions to
market information (production, stocks, and trade).
Suggested measures to reduce the negative impact of price
shocks on food security are: (a) reduce taxes and tariffs
(in some cases) to lower domestic prices, (b) short-term
food and cash transfers to preserve purchasing power, and
(c) support for agricultural production to try to prevent a
next season shortfall that could add to local price increases.
Palabras clave
AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION, AGGREGATE DEMAND, AGRIBUSINESS, AGRIBUSINESS LOGISTICS, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY MARKETS, AGRICULTURAL GROWTH, AGRICULTURAL MARKET, AGRICULTURAL MARKETS, AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK, AGRICULTURAL POLICY, AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES, AGRICULTURAL PRICE, AGRICULTURAL PRICES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH CENTERS, AGRICULTURAL SECTORS, AGRICULTURE, AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION, ANIMAL FEEDS, ANIMAL PRODUCTS, ARBITRAGE, AVERAGE PRICE, AVERAGE PRICES, BANANAS, BEEF, BEVERAGES, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CEREAL IMPORTS, CEREAL PRICE, CEREALS, COCOA, COMMODITY EXCHANGES, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVE PRICES, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CORN, COTTON, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP ROTATIONS, CROP YIELDS, CULTIVATED AREAS, DAIRY, DAIRY PRODUCTS, DEMAND CURVE, DEMAND CURVES, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND GROWTH, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DOMESTIC ECONOMIES, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICES, DRYING, ECONOMIC CRISIS, EDIBLE OILS, ENERGY PRICES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT SECTORS, EXTENSION SERVICES, FARM, FARM INCOMES, FARM PRODUCTION, FARM PRODUCTIVITY, FARMERS, FEED, FINANCIAL CRISES, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT, FINANCIAL TRANSACTIONS, FOOD ACCESS, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD CROP, FOOD CROPS, FOOD DEMAND, FOOD EXPORT, FOOD EXPORTS, FOOD FOR WORK, FOOD GRAINS, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD MARKETS, FOOD PREFERENCES, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD PRODUCTS, FOOD RESERVES, FOOD SAFETY, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SHORTAGES, FOOD STAPLES, FOOD STOCKS, FOOD SUPPLIES, FOOD SUPPLY, FOOD SUPPLY GROWTH, FOOD TRANSFERS, FUTURE PRICES, FUTURES, FUTURES CONTRACTS, FUTURES POSITION, GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION, GLOBAL EXPORTS, GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY, GRAIN, GRAIN PRICES, GRAIN PRODUCTION, GRAIN RESERVES, GRAINS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROUNDNUT, GROUNDNUT OIL, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, ICE, IMPORT TARIFFS, INCOME, INPUT PRICES, INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, INTERNATIONAL MARKETS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORIES, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, LIBERALIZATION, LIVESTOCK, LOCAL CURRENCIES, LOGISTICAL SUPPORT, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MAIZE, MARKET ASSESSMENT, MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, MARKET EQUILIBRIUM, MARKET EXPECTATIONS, MARKET INFORMATION, MARKET INFRASTRUCTURE, MARKET INTEGRATION, MARKET PRICE, MARKET PRICES, MARKET TRANSPARENCY, MARKETING, MARKETING SYSTEMS, MEAL, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MILLING, MOBILIZATION, MONETARY POLICY, MONOCULTURE, NATURAL RUBBER, OPTION PRICES, ORANGES, OUTPUT, OUTPUTS, PACKAGING, PALM OIL, PIG MEAT, PORK, POULTRY, PRICE BEHAVIOR, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE DISCOVERY, PRICE ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE INCENTIVES, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INSTABILITY, PRICE LEVELS, PRICE POLICY, PRICE RISK, PRICE RISKS, PRICE SPREAD, PRICE STABILIZATION, PRICE UNCERTAINTY, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRODUCER ORGANIZATION, PRODUCER ORGANIZATIONS, PROPERTY RIGHTS, PROTEINS, PUBLIC DEBT, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RAW MATERIALS, REDUCTIONS IN TARIFFS, RENEWABLE ENERGY, RETAIL, RICE, RICE PRICES, RISK MANAGEMENT, RURAL AREAS, SAFETY NET, SALE, SALES, SAVINGS, SECURITY RISKS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOYBEAN, SOYBEAN MEAL, SOYBEANS, SPOT MARKET, SPOT PRICES, SPREAD, STOCK MANAGEMENT, SUBSTITUTE, SUBSTITUTION, SUBSTITUTION EFFECT, SUGAR, SUGARCANE, SUPPLIER, SUPPLIERS, SUPPLY CHAIN, SUPPLY CHAINS, SUPPLY CURVE, SUPPLY SHOCK, SURPLUS, TAX, TEA, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TRANSACTION, VOLUME, WAREHOUSE, WFP, WHEAT, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY, WORLD MARKET, WORLD MARKET PRICES, WORLD MARKETS, WORLD PRICE, WORLD PRICES, WORLD RICE, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION