Impact of the Russian Invasion on Ukrainian Farmers’ Productivity, Rural Welfare, and Food Security
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Data from 2,251 small and medium-size
farms for 2021 and 2022 show that area reductions in
response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine remained
limited. However, worsening terms of trade reduced farm
profitability, implying that 46 percent of farms had a
negative cash flow and 54 percent (67 percent in the 50-120
hectare group) were credit constrained in 2022, implying
that longer term effects may be more adverse. Total factor
productivity varies significantly across size groups but is
not significantly different between formal and informal
farms in the same size group. This suggests that limited
transferability of land use rights that are
disproportionately used by smaller farms may be one reason
for low productivity. Improving transferability of land,
digital access to markets, and mortgage lending could thus
trigger investment and growth in higher value products by
small and medium-size farms to solidify Ukraine’s
comparative advantage in agriculture and improve rural
living conditions in the context of reconstruction.
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Palabras clave
RURAL IMPACT OF WAR, CREDIT MARKETS, ARMED CONFLICT IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE, FOOD SECURITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, POST-CONFLICT AGRICULTURAL RECONSTRUCTION, FARM PROFITABILITY, RURAL WELFARE