China through 2020

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dc.creatorKuijs, Louis
dc.date2017-09-07T16:00:15Z
dc.date2017-09-07T16:00:15Z
dc.date2009-06
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:57:50Z
dc.descriptionThis paper sketches a macroeconomic scenario for China for 2010-20. Growth accounting exercise finds that, with both the working population and total factor productivity on course to decelerate, potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to moderate in the coming 10 years, despite still sizeable capital deepening. Actual GDP should grow broadly as fast as potential GDP, continuing the track record since the late 1990s. With some rebalancing expected, the share of consumption in GDP is likely to bottom out and to rise somewhat through 2015 while the share of investment edges down. Robust economic growth in China would support imports. Meanwhile, given the outlook for the world economy, the share of exports in GDP may decline in 2010-2015 despite good competitiveness. As a result, the trade surplus may diminish relative to the size of China's economy. Even so, the external surplus will continue to rise in US dollar terms, especially the current account. In 2020 China's GDP per capita will be broadly comparable to the current level in Latin America, Turkey, and Malaysia. Adjusted for purchasing power, in 2020 China's GDP per capita will be one-fourth of the US level and China's total economy larger than that of the US. The pace of catch up in current prices and market exchange rates will depend on the extent of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation. Past experience internationally suggests that, with a large portion of labor employed in agriculture, RER appreciation may be modest in the coming decade. However, demographic changes may speed up the tightening of the labor market and trend RER appreciation. Reflecting this uncertainty, two scenarios are presented, suggesting China may become the largest economy on this metric sometime between 2020 and 2030.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/313501468025446322/China-through-2020-a-macroeconomic-scenario
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/28149
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/28149
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/413578
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectALLOCATION OF CAPITAL
dc.subjectBANK LENDING
dc.subjectBANK OFFICE
dc.subjectBENCHMARK
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL CONTROLS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL STOCK
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCOMMODITY
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCOMPETITIVENESS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS
dc.subjectDATA AVAILABILITY
dc.subjectDEFLATORS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subjectDIVIDEND
dc.subjectDIVIDEND POLICY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC ECONOMY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC PRICES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC REFORMS
dc.subjectECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
dc.subjectECONOMIES OF SCALE
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE REGIMES
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORTS
dc.subjectEXPOSURE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL ASSETS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL TRADE
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFINANCIAL STABILITY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectFIXED CAPITAL
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
dc.subjectFOREIGN SHARE
dc.subjectFUTURE PRICE
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGDP PER CAPITA
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectGLOBAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectGLOBAL MARKET
dc.subjectGLOBAL RECESSION
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT FINANCES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION
dc.subjectGROWTH ACCOUNTING
dc.subjectGROWTH PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectINFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKET
dc.subjectINVENTORY
dc.subjectJOB CREATION
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR SUPPLY
dc.subjectLAND REFORM
dc.subjectLESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectLIBERALIZATION
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectLOCAL GOVERNMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC VARIABLES
dc.subjectMANUFACTURING INDUSTRY
dc.subjectMARKET DATA
dc.subjectMARKET INTEGRATION
dc.subjectMARKET SHARE
dc.subjectMORTGAGES
dc.subjectNATIONAL SAVING
dc.subjectNET EXPORTS
dc.subjectOUTPUT GAP
dc.subjectPOTENTIAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectPOWER PARITY
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE INCREASES
dc.subjectPRODUCTION FUNCTION
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY GROWTH
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY INCREASES
dc.subjectPURCHASING
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectRAPID GROWTH
dc.subjectREAL ESTATE
dc.subjectREAL ESTATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREAL GDP
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectSAVING RATE
dc.subjectSHARE OF INVESTMENT
dc.subjectSHARE OF LABOR
dc.subjectSIDE EFFECTS
dc.subjectSPREAD
dc.subjectSUPPLY CHAINS
dc.subjectSURPLUS LABOR
dc.subjectSURPLUSES
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAXATION
dc.subjectTFP
dc.subjectTOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectTRACK RECORD
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectURBANIZATION
dc.subjectWAGE GROWTH
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWEALTH
dc.subjectWORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATOR
dc.subjectWORLD ECONOMY
dc.subjectWORLD TRADE
dc.subjectWTO
dc.titleChina through 2020
dc.titleA Macroeconomic Scenario
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.typeDocument de travail
dc.typeDocumento de trabajo

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