China through 2020
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper sketches a macroeconomic
scenario for China for 2010-20. Growth accounting exercise
finds that, with both the working population and total
factor productivity on course to decelerate, potential gross
domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to moderate in the
coming 10 years, despite still sizeable capital deepening.
Actual GDP should grow broadly as fast as potential GDP,
continuing the track record since the late 1990s. With some
rebalancing expected, the share of consumption in GDP is
likely to bottom out and to rise somewhat through 2015 while
the share of investment edges down. Robust economic growth
in China would support imports. Meanwhile, given the outlook
for the world economy, the share of exports in GDP may
decline in 2010-2015 despite good competitiveness. As a
result, the trade surplus may diminish relative to the size
of China's economy. Even so, the external surplus will
continue to rise in US dollar terms, especially the current
account. In 2020 China's GDP per capita will be broadly
comparable to the current level in Latin America, Turkey,
and Malaysia. Adjusted for purchasing power, in 2020
China's GDP per capita will be one-fourth of the US
level and China's total economy larger than that of the
US. The pace of catch up in current prices and market
exchange rates will depend on the extent of real exchange
rate (RER) appreciation. Past experience internationally
suggests that, with a large portion of labor employed in
agriculture, RER appreciation may be modest in the coming
decade. However, demographic changes may speed up the
tightening of the labor market and trend RER appreciation.
Reflecting this uncertainty, two scenarios are presented,
suggesting China may become the largest economy on this
metric sometime between 2020 and 2030.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK, AGRICULTURE, ALLOCATION OF CAPITAL, BANK LENDING, BANK OFFICE, BENCHMARK, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL CONTROLS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL STOCK, CENTRAL BANK, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICES, COMPETITIVENESS, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEFLATORS, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DISPOSABLE INCOME, DIVIDEND, DIVIDEND POLICY, DOMESTIC ECONOMY, DOMESTIC PRICES, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC REFORMS, ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION, ECONOMIES OF SCALE, ELASTICITY, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKETS, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATE, EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORTS, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL ASSETS, EXTERNAL DEFICITS, EXTERNAL TRADE, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FINANCIAL STABILITY, FINANCIAL SYSTEM, FIXED CAPITAL, FORECASTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, FOREIGN SHARE, FUTURE PRICE, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL ECONOMICS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL MARKET, GLOBAL RECESSION, GOVERNMENT FINANCES, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GROSS FIXED CAPITAL FORMATION, GROWTH ACCOUNTING, GROWTH PROJECTIONS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOMES, INFLATION, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT, INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKET, INVENTORY, JOB CREATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR SUPPLY, LAND REFORM, LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, LIBERALIZATION, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY, MARKET DATA, MARKET INTEGRATION, MARKET SHARE, MORTGAGES, NATIONAL SAVING, NET EXPORTS, OUTPUT GAP, POTENTIAL OUTPUT, POWER PARITY, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE INCREASES, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, REAL ESTATE, REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, RELATIVE PRICES, RESERVES, RETURNS, SAVING RATE, SHARE OF INVESTMENT, SHARE OF LABOR, SIDE EFFECTS, SPREAD, SUPPLY CHAINS, SURPLUS LABOR, SURPLUSES, TAX, TAXATION, TFP, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRACK RECORD, TRADE BALANCE, TRADING, URBANIZATION, WAGE GROWTH, WAGES, WEALTH, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATOR, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD TRADE, WTO