Modeling the Marginal Value of Rainforest Losses

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dc.creatorStrand, Jon
dc.date2015-11-05T19:08:17Z
dc.date2015-11-05T19:08:17Z
dc.date2015-10
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:47:58Z
dc.descriptionA rainforest can be modeled as a dynamic asset subject to various risks, including risk of fire. Any small part of the forest can be in one of two states: either untouched by forest fire, or already damaged by fire, in which case there is both a local forest loss and increased dryness over a broader area. In this paper, two Bellman equations are constructed, one for unharmed forest and a second for already burnt forest. The analysis solves the two equations for the total expected asset values in each of the two states, assuming that asset returns have a constant growth rate over time. The equations are used for deriving the marginal value of standing (unburnt) rainforest, equivalent to the expected discounted value loss when losing a small additional forest patch. The paper shows that marginal forest value is increased by the additional dryness and forest fire risk that follow from forest fragmentation when additional forest is lost locally. Both forest fires and dryness here serve as “multipliers” to the basic services return loss, within and outside the forest. The paper also presents a framework for calibrating the impact of the forest fire risk component on forest value.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2015/10/25167334/modeling-marginal-value-rainforest-losses-dynamic-value-function-approach
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/22876
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7445
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/411177
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 7445
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectFOSSIL FUEL
dc.subjectECOSYSTEM
dc.subjectLANDSCAPE ECOLOGY
dc.subjectFOREST FRAGMENTATION
dc.subjectISSUES
dc.subjectFIRE RISK
dc.subjectNATURAL RESOURCE
dc.subjectLAND AREA
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectILLEGAL LOGGERS
dc.subjectTIMBER
dc.subjectENERGY
dc.subjectBASELINE” FOREST
dc.subjectFOREST AREA
dc.subjectSTREAMS
dc.subjectFOREST EXTRACTION
dc.subjectFOREST PRESERVATION
dc.subjectCARBON RELEASE
dc.subjectCONSERVATION
dc.subjectTIMBER HARVESTING
dc.subjectLOGGING
dc.subjectFOREST VALUATION
dc.subjectUSE OF FIRE
dc.subjectLAND CLEARING
dc.subjectCARBON VALUES
dc.subjectTIMBER FOREST
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectFOREST LOSSES
dc.subjectGLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subjectDEFORESTATION RATE
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectDEFORESTED LAND
dc.subjectTIMBER VALUE
dc.subjectFOREST CHANGE
dc.subjectLOSS OF FOREST
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectFORESTS
dc.subjectLEAD
dc.subjectFOREST CHANGES
dc.subjectBIOLOGICAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectTIMBER FOREST PRODUCTS
dc.subjectCARBON MARKETS
dc.subjectPRIMARY FOREST
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOREST AREAS
dc.subjectAMAZONIAN LANDSCAPES
dc.subjectBIODIVERSITY PROTECTION
dc.subjectNEGATIVE IMPACT
dc.subjectFOREST BIOME
dc.subjectFOREST MANAGEMENT POLICY
dc.subjectEXTINCTIONS
dc.subjectFOREST COVER
dc.subjectFOREST LAND
dc.subjectFOREST PATCH
dc.subjectFOREST PLOT
dc.subjectTROPICAL FOREST
dc.subjectILLEGAL LOGGING
dc.subjectWOOD
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectBASELINE FOREST
dc.subjectLESS
dc.subjectDEFORESTATION
dc.subjectFOREST FIRES
dc.subjectTIMBER PRODUCTS
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL LOGGING
dc.subjectBENEFITS
dc.subjectFOREST FIRE
dc.subjectTIMBER VALUES
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE FORESTRY
dc.subjectFOREST PRODUCTS
dc.subjectHARM
dc.subjectBURNT FOREST
dc.subjectFOREST SERVICES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectBRAZILIAN AMAZON
dc.subjectLAND
dc.subjectCARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subjectPRICES
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectFOREST LOSS
dc.subjectECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectBIODIVERSITY
dc.subjectFOREST MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectFOREST FIRE MODEL
dc.subjectFOREST GROWTH
dc.subjectWOOD PRODUCTS
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectANNUAL PRECIPITATION
dc.subjectRAINFOREST
dc.subjectRAINFORESTS
dc.subjectFOREST FIRE RISK
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectECOSYSTEM SERVICES
dc.subjectLANDSCAPE
dc.subjectTIMBER EXTRACTION
dc.titleModeling the Marginal Value of Rainforest Losses
dc.titleA Dynamic Value Function Approach
dc.typeWorking Paper
dc.typeDocument de travail
dc.typeDocumento de trabajo

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