Modeling the Marginal Value of Rainforest Losses
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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A rainforest can be modeled as a dynamic
asset subject to various risks, including risk of fire. Any
small part of the forest can be in one of two states: either
untouched by forest fire, or already damaged by fire, in
which case there is both a local forest loss and increased
dryness over a broader area. In this paper, two Bellman
equations are constructed, one for unharmed forest and a
second for already burnt forest. The analysis solves the two
equations for the total expected asset values in each of the
two states, assuming that asset returns have a constant
growth rate over time. The equations are used for deriving
the marginal value of standing (unburnt) rainforest,
equivalent to the expected discounted value loss when losing
a small additional forest patch. The paper shows that
marginal forest value is increased by the additional dryness
and forest fire risk that follow from forest fragmentation
when additional forest is lost locally. Both forest fires
and dryness here serve as “multipliers” to the basic
services return loss, within and outside the forest. The
paper also presents a framework for calibrating the impact
of the forest fire risk component on forest value.
Palabras clave
FOSSIL FUEL, ECOSYSTEM, LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY, FOREST FRAGMENTATION, ISSUES, FIRE RISK, NATURAL RESOURCE, LAND AREA, PRECIPITATION, CARBON, ILLEGAL LOGGERS, TIMBER, ENERGY, BASELINE” FOREST, FOREST AREA, STREAMS, FOREST EXTRACTION, FOREST PRESERVATION, CARBON RELEASE, CONSERVATION, TIMBER HARVESTING, LOGGING, FOREST VALUATION, USE OF FIRE, LAND CLEARING, CARBON VALUES, TIMBER FOREST, FOREST, FOREST LOSSES, GLOBAL CARBON EMISSIONS, DEFORESTATION RATE, LAND USE, DEFORESTED LAND, TIMBER VALUE, FOREST CHANGE, LOSS OF FOREST, CLIMATE, FORESTS, LEAD, FOREST CHANGES, BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES, TIMBER FOREST PRODUCTS, CARBON MARKETS, PRIMARY FOREST, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, FOREST AREAS, AMAZONIAN LANDSCAPES, BIODIVERSITY PROTECTION, NEGATIVE IMPACT, FOREST BIOME, FOREST MANAGEMENT POLICY, EXTINCTIONS, FOREST COVER, FOREST LAND, FOREST PATCH, FOREST PLOT, TROPICAL FOREST, ILLEGAL LOGGING, WOOD, CLIMATE CHANGE, BASELINE FOREST, LESS, DEFORESTATION, FOREST FIRES, TIMBER PRODUCTS, COMMERCIAL LOGGING, BENEFITS, FOREST FIRE, TIMBER VALUES, SUSTAINABLE FORESTRY, FOREST PRODUCTS, HARM, BURNT FOREST, FOREST SERVICES, AGRICULTURE, BRAZILIAN AMAZON, LAND, CARBON EMISSIONS, PRICES, EMISSIONS, FOREST LOSS, ECOLOGICAL ECONOMICS, RAINFALL, BIODIVERSITY, FOREST MANAGEMENT, FOREST FIRE MODEL, FOREST GROWTH, WOOD PRODUCTS, ECOSYSTEMS, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, RAINFOREST, RAINFORESTS, FOREST FIRE RISK, FORESTRY, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, LANDSCAPE, TIMBER EXTRACTION