How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

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dc.creatorLeite, Phillippe
dc.creatorNarayan, Ambar
dc.creatorSkoufias, Emmanuel
dc.date2012-03-19T18:03:01Z
dc.date2012-03-19T18:03:01Z
dc.date2011-06-01
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:04:45Z
dc.descriptionThis paper compares the ex ante simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained from experimental evaluations. Using data on program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador, the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use of this model to assess the potential impact and cost efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante, in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20110623162735
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/3469
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-5705
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/415026
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relationPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5705
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectAGE GROUPS
dc.subjectARITHMETIC
dc.subjectBASELINE SURVEYS
dc.subjectBENEFICIARIES
dc.subjectCARE CENTERS
dc.subjectCHILD LABOR
dc.subjectCONTROL GROUPS
dc.subjectCOUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subjectDATA COLLECTION
dc.subjectDATA REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectDESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
dc.subjectDROPOUT RATES
dc.subjectENROLLMENT
dc.subjectENROLLMENT RATE
dc.subjectENROLLMENT RATES
dc.subjectENROLMENT RATE
dc.subjectENROLMENT RATES
dc.subjectESTIMATORS
dc.subjectEVALUATION METHODS
dc.subjectEVALUATION RESULTS
dc.subjectEVALUATION STUDIES
dc.subjectEX ANTE ANALYSIS
dc.subjectEX POST EVALUATION
dc.subjectEXPERIMENTAL DESIGN
dc.subjectEXPERIMENTAL STUDIES
dc.subjectEXPERIMENTS
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectGIRLS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMPACT EVALUATION
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectLANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectMETHODOLOGY
dc.subjectMODELING
dc.subjectNUTRITION
dc.subjectOUTCOME INDICATORS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOVERTY ALLEVIATION
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOL
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOL AGE
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
dc.subjectPRIMARY SCHOOLING
dc.subjectPROGRAM EFFECTS
dc.subjectPROGRAM EVALUATION
dc.subjectPROGRAM IMPACTS
dc.subjectPROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION
dc.subjectPROGRAMS
dc.subjectQUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS
dc.subjectRELIABILITY
dc.subjectRESEARCH WORKING PAPERS
dc.subjectRESEARCHERS
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectSAMPLE SIZE
dc.subjectSCENARIO
dc.subjectSCENARIOS
dc.subjectSCHOOL ATTENDANCE
dc.subjectSCHOOLING
dc.subjectSCHOOLS
dc.subjectSELECTION BIAS
dc.subjectSIMULATION
dc.subjectSIMULATIONS
dc.subjectSURVEY DATA
dc.subjectTARGETING
dc.subjectTECHNIQUES
dc.subjectTRAINING PROGRAMME
dc.subjectTRAINING PROGRAMS
dc.subjectTRANSPARENCY
dc.subjectTREATMENT EFFECTS
dc.subjectTREATMENT GROUPS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectVALIDITY
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectWEIGHTING
dc.titleHow Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

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