How Do Ex Ante Simulations Compare with Ex Post Evaluations? Evidence from the Impact of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs
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This paper compares the ex ante
simulation of the impacts of conditional cash transfer
programs against the ex post estimates of impacts obtained
from experimental evaluations. Using data on
program-eligible households in treatment areas from the same
baseline surveys that are used for experimental evaluations
of conditional cash transfer programs in Mexico and Ecuador,
the authors use a micro-simulation model to derive ex ante
estimates of the impact of the programs on enrollment rates
and poverty. The estimates reveal that ex ante predictions
of certain impacts of conditional cash transfer programs
match up well against the benchmark estimates of ex post
experimental studies. The findings seem to support the use
of this model to assess the potential impact and cost
efficiency of a conditional cash transfer program ex ante,
in order to inform decisions about how the program would be designed.
Palabras clave
AGE GROUPS, ARITHMETIC, BASELINE SURVEYS, BENEFICIARIES, CARE CENTERS, CHILD LABOR, CONTROL GROUPS, COUNTERFACTUAL, DATA COLLECTION, DATA REQUIREMENTS, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, DROPOUT RATES, ENROLLMENT, ENROLLMENT RATE, ENROLLMENT RATES, ENROLMENT RATE, ENROLMENT RATES, ESTIMATORS, EVALUATION METHODS, EVALUATION RESULTS, EVALUATION STUDIES, EX ANTE ANALYSIS, EX POST EVALUATION, EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN, EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES, EXPERIMENTS, FORECASTS, GIRLS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPACT EVALUATION, INCOME, LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS, METHODOLOGY, MODELING, NUTRITION, OUTCOME INDICATORS, PER CAPITA INCOME, POVERTY ALLEVIATION, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE, PRIMARY SCHOOL STUDENTS, PRIMARY SCHOOLING, PROGRAM EFFECTS, PROGRAM EVALUATION, PROGRAM IMPACTS, PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION, PROGRAMS, QUASIEXPERIMENTAL METHODS, RELIABILITY, RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS, RESEARCHERS, RURAL AREAS, SAMPLE SIZE, SCENARIO, SCENARIOS, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOLING, SCHOOLS, SELECTION BIAS, SIMULATION, SIMULATIONS, SURVEY DATA, TARGETING, TECHNIQUES, TRAINING PROGRAMME, TRAINING PROGRAMS, TRANSPARENCY, TREATMENT EFFECTS, TREATMENT GROUPS, UNEMPLOYMENT, VALIDITY, WAGES, WEIGHTING