Survival of the Fittest?
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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About a third of development projects
fail to achieve satisfactory outcomes, according to
agencies' independent evaluation units. To a large
extent, these outcomes appear to be baked into projects at
their inception due to inadequate project design or
relevance. This prompts questions about the diffusion of
project design concepts: To what extent are better-designed
or better-performing projects more likely to be emulated? Do
factors of bureaucratic or political attractiveness -- such
as ease of set-up and rapidity of disbursement -- play a
role? To address these questions, this paper explores the
use of methods from network science. It constructs a network
graph of the relationship among the components of all World
Bank investment projects initiated from 1996 to 2014, based
on the semantic similarity of the component descriptions. It
uses the network to assess the characteristics of projects
that are more 'prolific' in the sense of having
closely related followers, and as tool for visualizing
diffusion of design concepts. This illustrative exercise
defines a measures of project 'influence' on
subsequent projects and tests simple, nonexclusive
hypotheses about the determinants of influence. It finds no
significant impact of project outcome or quality of entry
(as independently rated) on 'influence.' Nor does
ease of project preparation (as proxied by time from concept
note to effectiveness) have any significant effect. However,
very small projects (less than $10 million) have markedly
lower 'influence' on average. This finding may
have implications for the usefulness of small projects as
pilots for subsequent scale up.
Palabras clave
PROJECT MANAGEMENT, COMMUNITIES, SUPERVISION, ACCOUNTING, INSPECTION, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, SOFTWARE, RESULTS, SEARCH, DESCRIPTION, INTEREST, VALUE, DEVELOPMENT BANKS, BANK, PROJECT MONITORING, NETWORKS, EVALUATION GUIDELINES, INFORMATION, NETWORK MODEL, MANAGEMENT SYSTEM, MONITORING, IMPLEMENTING AGENCY, MENU, STANDARD FORMAT, AGRICULTURE, YOUTH, INCENTIVES, TRANSMISSION, FISCAL YEAR, VARIABLES, PROJECTS, PROJECT, MARKET, MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS, QUALITY, PILOT PROJECTS, ADMINISTRATION, OPEN ACCESS, RESULT, TARGETING, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, DEVELOPMENT, ICR, THEORY, INFLUENCE, BUSINESS, NETWORK, STATISTICS, EVALUATION, BANDWIDTH, RISK, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS, OPEN-SOURCE SOFTWARE, FAILURES, LENDING, CRITERIA, SOFTWARE PACKAGE, PROJECT EVALUATION, INTERVENTIONS, LEARNING, DATA ACCESS, RESEARCH, DONOR AGENCY, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DATABASE, OUTCOMES, ADB, DATA ANALYSIS, GOVERNMENTS, SAFETY, TARGET, FINANCE, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DESIGN, BANKS