Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

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dc.creatorAhmed, Syud Amer
dc.creatorDiffenbaugh, Noah S.
dc.creatorHertel, Thomas W.
dc.creatorLobell, David B.
dc.creatorRamankutty, Navin
dc.creatorRios, Ana R.
dc.creatorRowhani, Pedram
dc.date2012-03-19T19:13:42Z
dc.date2012-03-19T19:13:42Z
dc.date2009-11-01
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:01:29Z
dc.descriptionClimate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania s population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climate scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20091109085100
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/4309
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5117
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/414352
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relationPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5117
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCESS TO FOOD
dc.subjectADMINISTRATIVE REGION
dc.subjectADVERSE CLIMATE
dc.subjectAGGREGATE LEVEL
dc.subjectAGGREGATE SUPPLY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL LAND
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL YIELDS
dc.subjectARABLE LAND
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGES
dc.subjectCLIMATE DATA
dc.subjectCLIMATE EFFECTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE EXTREMES
dc.subjectCLIMATE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODEL
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELS
dc.subjectCLIMATE OUTCOMES
dc.subjectCLIMATE POLICY
dc.subjectCLIMATE PREDICTION
dc.subjectCLIMATE PREDICTIONS
dc.subjectCLIMATE PROJECTIONS
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESEARCH
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT
dc.subjectCLIMATE SCIENCE
dc.subjectCLIMATE SYSTEM
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABILITY
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABLES
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIATIONS
dc.subjectCLIMATEPOVERTY
dc.subjectCLIMATES
dc.subjectCONSUMER BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectCONSUMER DEMAND
dc.subjectCONSUMER PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION DATA
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION PATTERNS
dc.subjectCROP PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCROP YIELD
dc.subjectCROP YIELDS
dc.subjectCROPLAND
dc.subjectCRU
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDROUGHT
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC ANALYSIS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS SCENARIO
dc.subjectEXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS
dc.subjectEXTREME EVENTS
dc.subjectEXTREME HEAT
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectEXTREMES OF CLIMATE
dc.subjectFAMINE
dc.subjectFARMER
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SERVICES
dc.subjectFLOODS
dc.subjectFOOD EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectFOOD INSECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD POLICY
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOOD SECURITY
dc.subjectFOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectFOREST METEOROLOGY
dc.subjectFUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectFUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
dc.subjectGCM
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY
dc.subjectGLOBAL WARMING
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES
dc.subjectGROWING SEASON TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectGROWING SEASON TEMPERATURES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD BUDGET
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectIMPACT OF CLIMATE
dc.subjectIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectIMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME ON FOOD
dc.subjectINCREASE IN TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectIRRIGATION
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectMEAN TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectMEAT
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY HEADCOUNT
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY RATE
dc.subjectNET INCOME
dc.subjectPER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPOLICY MAKERS
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOVERTY ANALYSIS
dc.subjectPOVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACT
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCREASE
dc.subjectPOVERTY LEVEL
dc.subjectPOVERTY PROFILE
dc.subjectPP
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectPRICE VOLATILITY
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectREDUCTION OF POVERTY
dc.subjectREGIONAL CLIMATE
dc.subjectREGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectRURAL DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectRURAL LABOR
dc.subjectRURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectSEASON
dc.subjectSUBSISTENCE
dc.subjectSUBSTITUTION
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE DATA
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE RELATIVE
dc.subjectTEMPORAL TRENDS
dc.subjectTOTAL POVERTY
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTIES
dc.subjectUNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
dc.subjectUTILITY FUNCTION
dc.titleClimate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

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