Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

Ahmed, Syud Amer; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Lobell, David B.; Ramankutty, Navin; Rios, Ana R.; Rowhani, Pedram

Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

Autores

Descripción

Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania s population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climate scenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.

Palabras clave

ACCESS TO FOOD, ADMINISTRATIVE REGION, ADVERSE CLIMATE, AGGREGATE LEVEL, AGGREGATE SUPPLY, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL YIELDS, ARABLE LAND, ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS, ATMOSPHERIC GREENHOUSE GAS CONCENTRATIONS, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE EFFECTS, CLIMATE EXTREMES, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE MODEL, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATE OUTCOMES, CLIMATE POLICY, CLIMATE PREDICTION, CLIMATE PREDICTIONS, CLIMATE PROJECTIONS, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT, CLIMATE SCIENCE, CLIMATE SYSTEM, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATE VARIATIONS, CLIMATEPOVERTY, CLIMATES, CONSUMER BEHAVIOR, CONSUMER DEMAND, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMPTION DATA, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP YIELD, CROP YIELDS, CROPLAND, CRU, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DIVERSIFICATION, DROUGHT, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, EMISSIONS, EMISSIONS SCENARIO, EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS, EXTREME EVENTS, EXTREME HEAT, EXTREME POVERTY, EXTREMES OF CLIMATE, FAMINE, FARMER, FARMERS, FINANCIAL SERVICES, FLOODS, FOOD EXPENDITURE, FOOD INSECURITY, FOOD POLICY, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOOD SECURITY, FOOD SUPPLY, FOREST, FOREST METEOROLOGY, FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE, FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS, GCM, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY, GLOBAL WARMING, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS SOURCES, GROWING SEASON TEMPERATURE, GROWING SEASON TEMPERATURES, HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE, INCOME, INCOME ON FOOD, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LAND USE, MEAN TEMPERATURE, MEAT, MONETARY FUND, NATIONAL INCOME, NATIONAL POVERTY, NATIONAL POVERTY HEADCOUNT, NATIONAL POVERTY LINE, NATIONAL POVERTY RATE, NET INCOME, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, POLICY MAKERS, POOR, POVERTY ANALYSIS, POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INCREASE, POVERTY LEVEL, POVERTY PROFILE, PP, PRECIPITATION, PRICE VOLATILITY, RAINFALL, REDUCTION OF POVERTY, REGIONAL CLIMATE, REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL LABOR, RURAL SECTOR, SEASON, SUBSISTENCE, SUBSTITUTION, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE DATA, TEMPERATURE RELATIVE, TEMPORAL TRENDS, TOTAL POVERTY, UNCERTAINTIES, UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES, UTILITY FUNCTION