Aggregate Income Shocks and Infant Mortality in the Developing World

Baird, Sarah; Friedman, Jed; Schady, Norbert

Aggregate Income Shocks and Infant Mortality in the Developing World

Autores

Baird, Sarah

Friedman, Jed

Schady, Norbert

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

The diffusion of cost-effective life saving technologies has reduced infant mortality in much of the developing world. Income gains may also play a direct, protective role in ensuring child survival, although the empirical findings to date on this issue have been mixed. This paper assembles data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) in 59 countries to analyze the relationship between changes in per capita GDP and infant mortality. The authors show that there is a strong, negative association between changes in per capita GDP and infant mortality- in a first-differenced specification the implied elasticity of infant mortality with respect to per capita GDP is approximately -0.56. In addition to this central result, two findings are noteworthy. First, although there is some evidence of changes in the composition of women giving birth during economic upturns and downturns, the observed changes in infant mortality are not a result of mothers with protective characteristics timing fertility to correspond with the business cycle. Second, the association between infant mortality and per capita GDP is particularly pronounced for periods of large contractions in GDP, suggesting the inability of developing country households or health systems (or both) to smooth resources. Simple back-of-the-envelope calculations using the estimates suggest that there may have been more than 1 million "excess" deaths in the developing world since 1980 as a result of large, negative contractions in per capita GDP.

Palabras clave

ABILITY TO PAY, ADULT HEALTH, ADULT MORTALITY, AIDS EPIDEMIC, AIR POLLUTION, ARMED CONFLICT, ARMED CONFLICTS, BABIES, CARE FOR CHILDREN, CENSUSES, CHILD BIRTH, CHILD DEATHS, CHILD HEALTH, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL WAR, COMPLICATIONS, DEMOGRAPHIC SURVEYS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISCRIMINATION, DISEASE CONTROL, ECONOMIC CHANGE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICY, EQUILIBRIUM, EXPENDITURES, FAMILIES, FEMALE CHILDREN, FEMALE EDUCATION, FEMALE MORTALITY, FERTILITY, FIRST BIRTHS, GENDER, GENDER DIFFERENCES, GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT, HEALTH ECONOMICS, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH SERVICES, HEALTH STATUS, HIV, HIV INFECTION, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN RESOURCES, HYGIENE, IMPROVEMENTS IN CHILD SURVIVAL, INCOME, INFANT, INFANT DEATH, INFANT DEATHS, INFANT HEALTH, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, INFANT MORTALITY RATES, INFANTS, INFECTION RATES, INTEGRATION, LIFE EXPECTANCY, LIVE BIRTHS, LOW BIRTHWEIGHT, MALARIA, MALE MORTALITY, MANDATES, MATERNAL HEALTH, MEDICAL ATTENTION, MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY, MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS, MORBIDITY, MORTALITY DECLINE, MORTALITY RISK, MOTHER, MULTIPLE BIRTH, MULTIPLE BIRTHS, NATALITY DATA, NEONATAL MORTALITY, NUMBER OF BIRTHS, NUMBER OF DEATHS, NUTRITION, OLDER WOMEN, PEACE, PLACE OF RESIDENCE, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT, POPULATION ASSOCIATION, PREGNANCY, PRENATAL CARE, PREVENTIVE HEALTH CARE, PRIMARY SCHOOLING, PROBABILITY, PROGRESS, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC HEALTH SERVICES, PUBLIC SERVICES, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RADIATION, RESPECT, RURAL AREAS, SEX, SEX RATIO, SMOKING, SOCIAL SCIENCE, STATE UNIVERSITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO, URBAN AREAS, USE OF HEALTH SERVICES, VITAL STATISTICS, VULNERABILITY, WOMAN, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION, YOUNG CHILDREN, YOUNG MOTHER, YOUNG MOTHERS