Evaluation of Development Programs : Randomized Controlled Trials or Regressions?
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Can project evaluation methods be used
to evaluate programs: complex interventions involving
multiple activities? A program evaluation cannot be based
simply on separate evaluations of its components if
interactions between the activities are important. In this
paper a measure is proposed, the total program effect (TPE),
which is an extension of the average treatment effect on the
treated (ATET). It explicitly takes into account that in the
real world (with heterogeneous treatment effects) individual
treatment effects and program assignment are often
correlated. The TPE can also deal with the common situation
in which such a correlation is the result of decisions on
(intended) program participation not being taken centrally.
In this context RCTs are less suitable even for the simplest
interventions. The TPE can be estimated by applying
regression techniques to observational data from a
representative sample from the targeted population. The
approach is illustrated with an evaluation of a health
insurance program in Vietnam.
Palabras clave
BENEFICIARIES, CALCULATION, CAPACITY BUILDING, CONTROL GROUPS, CORRELATIONS, COVARIANCE, ESTIMATORS, EVALUATION METHODS, EX POST EVALUATION, EXPERIMENTAL DATA, EXPERIMENTAL METHODS, EXPERIMENTS, HEALTH OUTCOMES, IMPACT EVALUATION, INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES, INTERVENTION, LEARNING, LIVING STANDARDS, MATRIX, NGO, NUTRITIONAL STATUS, POLICY CHANGES, PRECISION, PROBABILITY, PROGRAM EFFECTS, PROGRAM EVALUATION, PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION, PROGRAM INTERVENTIONS, PROGRAMS, PROJECT EVALUATION, RANDOMIZATION, RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIALS, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RESEARCH WORKING PAPERS, SAMPLING ERRORS, STANDARD ERRORS, STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, TARGETING, TECHNIQUES, TREATMENT EFFECTS, VALIDITY, treatment heterogeneity, sector-wide programs, aid effectiveness, program evaluation, policy evaluation