Warlords, State Failures, and the Rise of Communism in China
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper documents that the spread of
communism in China was partly caused by state failures in
the early 20th century. It finds that famines became more
frequent after China fell into warlord fragmentation,
especially for prefectures with less rugged borders and
those facing stronger military threat. The relation between
topography and famines holds when using historical border
changes to instrument border ruggedness. More people from
famine-inflicted prefectures died in the subsequent decades
for the communist movement, but not for the Nationalist
Army. There is evidence that famines exacerbated rural
inequality, which pushed more peasants to the side of the communists.
Palabras clave
FAMINE, WARLORD, GEOGRAPHY, INEQUALITY, COMMUNISM, STATE FAILURE