Using Remotely Sensed Data to Assess War-Induced Damage to Agricultural Cultivation: Evidence from Ukraine
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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This paper explores whether satellite imagery can be used to derive a measure to estimate conflict-induced damage to agricultural production and compare the results to those obtained using media-based conflict indicators, which are widely used in the literature. The paper combines area for summer and winter crops from annual crop maps for 2019–24 with measures of conflict-related damage to agricultural land based on optical and thermal satellite sensors. These data are used to estimate a difference-in-differences model for close to 10,000 Ukrainian village councils. The results point to large and persistent negative effects that spill over to conflict-unaffected village councils. The predicted impact is three times larger, with a distinctly different distribution across key domains (for example, territory controlled by Ukraine and the Russian Federation) using the preferred image-based indicator as compared to a media-based indicator. Satellite imagery thus allows defining conflict incidence in ways that may be relevant to agricultural production and that may have implications for future research.
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UKRAINE, CONFLICT/WAR, FOOD SECURITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL INPUT AND OUTPUT MARKETS