The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization : Implications for Poverty
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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Most researchers examining poverty and
multilateral trade liberalization have had to examine
average, or per capita effects, suggesting that if per
capita real income rises, poverty will fall. This inference
can be misleading. Combining results from a new
international cross-section consumption analysis with
earnings data from household surveys, this article analyzes
the implications of multilateral trade liberalization for
poverty in Indonesia. It finds that the aggregate reduction
in Indonesia's national poverty headcount following
global trade liberalization masks a more complex set of
impacts across groups. In the short run the poverty
headcount rises slightly for self-employed agricultural
households, as agricultural profits fail to keep up with
increases in consumer prices. In the long run the poverty
headcount falls for all earnings strata, as increased demand
for unskilled workers lifts incomes for the formerly
self-employed, some of whom move into the wage labor market.
A decomposition of the poverty changes in Indonesia
associated with different countries' trade policies
finds that reform in other countries leads to a reduction in
poverty in Indonesia but that liberalization of
Indonesia's trade policies leads to an increase. The
method used here can be readily extended to any of the other
13 countries in the sample.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL EXPORT SUBSIDIES, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, AGRICULTURE, APPAREL, APPAREL EXPORTS, APPAREL PRODUCTS, AVERAGE TARIFF, AVERAGE TARIFFS, BARGAINING, BENCHMARK, BIDS, BORROWING, BUDGET CONSTRAINT, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL INTENSITY, CAPITAL RETURN, CAPITAL SHARE, CAPITAL STOCK, CHILD LABOR, COMMODITIES, COMMODITIES PRODUCER, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, CONSTANT SHARE, CONSUMER DEMAND, CONSUMER DEMANDS, CONSUMER EXPENDITURE, CONSUMER GOOD, CONSUMER PREFERENCES, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMER SPENDING, CONSUMERS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, DEVELOPING ECONOMY, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME, DURABLE, DURABLE GOODS, DURABLES, ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC POLICY, ELASTICITY, ELASTICITY OF TRANSFORMATION, EMPLOYMENT, EXOGENOUS SHOCKS, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT TAXES, EXPORTS, FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, FACTOR MARKETS, FACTOR PRICE, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FAMILY LABOR, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICES, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELING, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ¨ ANALYSIS, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL TRADE, GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, HOUSEHOLD BUSINESS, HOUSEHOLD EARNINGS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPACT OF TRADE, IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION, IMPORT TARIFFS, INCOME EFFECT, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVEL, INCOME LEVELS, INSURANCE, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY, INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVESTING, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LAND HOLDINGS, LANDLESS LABORERS, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, MACROECONOMICS, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET PRICE, MARKET WAGES, MULTILATERAL TRADE, MULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, NATIONAL INCOME, NATURAL RESOURCES, OUTPUT, PER CAPITA INCOME, PER CAPITA INCOMES, PERFECT COMPETITION, POWER PARITY, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE DECLINES, PRICE INCREASES, PRIMARY FACTORS, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PROTECTION ESTIMATES, PURCHASING POWER, QUOTA RENTS, REAL INCOME, RETURNS, SAVINGS, SPECIALIZATION, TARIFF DATA, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REVENUE, TAX, TAX REVENUES, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE MODELS, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REFORM, TRADING, TRADING SYSTEM, TRANSFER PAYMENTS, UNILATERAL TRADE, UNSKILLED LABOR, UNSKILLED WORKERS, UTILITY FUNCTION, WAGE RATES, WAGES, WELFARE IMPACTS, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD PRICES, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, WTO