Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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It is a virtual certainty that sea-level
rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100
even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near
future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity
intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in
low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper
presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change
leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on
agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis
is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future
soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account
climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and
rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis
to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil
salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety
rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent
in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4
deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed
coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce
significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice
production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in
Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.
Palabras clave
ADVERSE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES, AQUACULTURE, BASIN, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE RESILIENCE, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE MODELS, CLIMATIC CHANGE, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL COMMUNITIES, COASTAL COMMUNITY, COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS, COASTAL REGIONS, COASTAL ZONES, COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS, COMPOST, CONDUCTIVITY, CONSERVATION, CULTIVABLE LAND, DIFFUSION, DRINKING WATER, ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATES, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC EFFECTS, ECONOMICS, ECONOMICS OF ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE, EFFECT OF TEMPERATURE, ELASTICITIES, EMISSIONS, EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE, EMPIRICAL RESEARCH, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, ESTUARIES, FARMERS, FISHERIES, FLOODING, FOOD POLICY RESEARCH, GLOBAL CLIMATE, GLOBAL TEMPERATURE, GLOBAL WARMING, HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING, ICE, ICE CAPS, IMPACT OF CLIMATE, IMPACT OF TEMPERATURE, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, IMPACTS OF TEMPERATURE, IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INCREASE IN TEMPERATURE, INPUT PRICES, INPUT USE, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INUNDATION, IRRIGATION, LAND ECONOMICS, LAND USE, LONG-TERM RAINFALL, LOWER RAINFALL, MARKET PRICES, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE, MEAN RAINFALL, MEAN TEMPERATURE, MELTING, MONITORING STATIONS, OCEANS, POLICY INSTRUMENTS, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PRICE ELASTICITIES, PROGRAMS, RAINFALL, RAINFALL DATA, RAINFALL TREND, RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE, RIVER, RIVER BASIN, RIVER ESTUARIES, RIVER FLOWS, RIVERS, SALINITY, SALTWATER INTRUSION, SCIENCES, SEA, SEA LEVEL RISE, SEA-LEVEL, SEA-LEVEL RISE, SEASON, SOILS, STORM SURGES, STREAM, SUBSIDENCE, SURFACE WATER, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGE, TEMPERATURE DATA, TEMPERATURE EFFECT, TEMPERATURE INCREASE, TEMPERATURES, VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE, WATER TABLE, WETLANDS