How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?

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dc.creatorKurukulasuriya, Pradeep
dc.creatorMendelsohn, Robert
dc.date2012-06-04T16:01:39Z
dc.date2012-06-04T16:01:39Z
dc.date2008-09
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:36:20Z
dc.descriptionThe study develops a new method to measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each district. The average percentage of cropland and average crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is located is provided. Using current conditions, the model calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue, and estimates the future impact of climate change using two scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change much across the two climate scenarios. However, the predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change on agriculture.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2008/09/9841788/climate-change-shift-agro-ecological-zones-impact-african-agriculture
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/6994
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4717
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/407158
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4717
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL LAND
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL LAND USE
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGES
dc.subjectCLIMATE DYNAMICS
dc.subjectCLIMATE IMPACTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABLES
dc.subjectCROP
dc.subjectCROP PRODUCTION
dc.subjectCROPLAND
dc.subjectCROPLANDS
dc.subjectCROPPING
dc.subjectCROPPING PATTERNS
dc.subjectCROPS
dc.subjectDESERTS
dc.subjectDRAINAGE
dc.subjectECOLOGICAL ZONE
dc.subjectECOLOGICAL ZONES
dc.subjectECOSYSTEMS
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectEQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectFAO
dc.subjectFARM
dc.subjectFARMER
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFARMING
dc.subjectFARMS
dc.subjectFOOD PRODUCTION
dc.subjectFOREST
dc.subjectFORESTRY
dc.subjectFORESTS
dc.subjectGCM
dc.subjectGLOBAL POPULATION
dc.subjectGRAINS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GASES
dc.subjectGROWING SEASON
dc.subjectGROWING SEASONS
dc.subjectINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectLAND COVER
dc.subjectLAND DEGRADATION
dc.subjectLAND TENURE
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectLAND USE SYSTEMS
dc.subjectMETEOROLOGY
dc.subjectNORTH AFRICA
dc.subjectPARTNERSHIP
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectPRODUCE
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectRAINFED AGRICULTURE
dc.subjectRAINFED FARMING
dc.subjectSAHARA
dc.subjectSATELLITES
dc.subjectSNOW
dc.subjectSNOW COVER
dc.subjectSOIL
dc.subjectSOILS
dc.subjectSPACING
dc.subjectSURFACE TEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE CHANGES
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE DATA
dc.subjectUNEP
dc.subjectWATER RESOURCES
dc.subjectWEATHER
dc.subjectWEATHER STATIONS
dc.subjectWOOD
dc.subjectWORLD FOOD SUPPLY
dc.subjectYIELDS
dc.titleHow Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?

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