How Will Climate Change Shift Agro-Ecological Zones and Impact African Agriculture?
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The study develops a new method to
measure the impacts of climate change on agriculture called
the Agro-Ecological Zone (AEZ) Model. A multinomial logit is
estimated to predict the probability of each AEZ in each
district. The average percentage of cropland and average
crop net revenue are calculated for each AEZ. Then an
estimate of the amount of cropland in Africa and where it is
located is provided. Using current conditions, the model
calculates baseline values of cropland and crop net revenue,
and estimates the future impact of climate change using two
scenarios-harsh and mild. Total cropland does not change
much across the two climate scenarios. However, the
predicted change in African crop revenue ranges from a loss
of 14 percent in the mild climate scenario to 30 percent in
the harsher climate scenario. The analysis reveals that the
greatest harm from climate change is that it will shift
farms from high to low productive AEZs. The approach not
only identifies the aggregate impacts, but also indicates
where the impacts occur across Africa. The central region of
Africa is hurt the most, especially in the harsher climate
scenario. The Agro-Ecological Zone Model is a promising new
method for valuing the long-term impacts of climate change
on agriculture.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL LAND USE, AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE DYNAMICS, CLIMATE IMPACTS, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CROP, CROP PRODUCTION, CROPLAND, CROPLANDS, CROPPING, CROPPING PATTERNS, CROPS, DESERTS, DRAINAGE, ECOLOGICAL ZONE, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECOSYSTEMS, EMISSIONS, EQUILIBRIUM, FAO, FARM, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMS, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREST, FORESTRY, FORESTS, GCM, GLOBAL POPULATION, GRAINS, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GASES, GROWING SEASON, GROWING SEASONS, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE, IPCC, LAND COVER, LAND DEGRADATION, LAND TENURE, LAND USE, LAND USE SYSTEMS, METEOROLOGY, NORTH AFRICA, PARTNERSHIP, PRECIPITATION, PRODUCE, RAINFALL, RAINFED AGRICULTURE, RAINFED FARMING, SAHARA, SATELLITES, SNOW, SNOW COVER, SOIL, SOILS, SPACING, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE CHANGES, TEMPERATURE DATA, UNEP, WATER RESOURCES, WEATHER, WEATHER STATIONS, WOOD, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY, YIELDS