Aggregate Economic Shocks, Child Schooling and Child Health
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Do aggregate economic shocks, such as
those caused by macroeconomic crises or droughts, reduce
child human capital? The answer to this question has
important implications for public policy. If shocks reduce
investments in children, they may transmit poverty from one
generation to the next. This paper uses a simple framework
to analyze the effects of aggregate economic shocks on child
schooling and health. It shows that the expected effects are
ambiguous, because of a tension between income and
substitution effects. The paper then reviews the recent
empirical literature on the subject. In richer countries,
like the United States, child health and education outcomes
are counter-cyclical: they improve during recessions. In
poorer countries, mostly in Africa and low-income Asia, the
outcomes are pro-cyclical: infant mortality rises, and
school enrollment and nutrition fall during recessions. In
the middle-income countries of Latin America, the picture is
more nuanced: health outcomes are generally pro-cyclical,
and education outcomes counter-cyclical. Each of these
findings is consistent with the simple conceptual framework.
The paper discusses possible implications for expenditure allocation.
Palabras clave
ABSENTEEISM, ACCOUNTING, ADOLESCENTS, ADULT HEALTH, ADULT MORTALITY, AGED, AIR POLLUTION, BABIES, BREASTFEEDING, BULLETIN, CAPITAL INVESTMENTS, CD, CHILD CARE, CHILD HEALTH, CHILD LABOR, CHILD MORTALITY, CHILD NUTRITION, CHILD SURVIVAL, CIVIL WAR, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CRISES, CULTURAL CHANGE, DEMAND CURVE, DEPRESSION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DISASTERS, DISCOUNT RATE, DISEASES, EARLY CHILDHOOD, ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC CRISES, ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS, ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS, ECONOMICS, ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION, EDUCATED WOMEN, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELDERLY, EPIDEMIOLOGY, ESSENTIAL COMMODITIES, EXPECTED RETURNS, EXPECTED VALUE, EXPENDITURES, EXTERNALITIES, FAMILIES, FAMILY MEMBERS, FERTILITY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL SECTOR, FUTURE RESEARCH, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GENDER DIFFERENCES, GROWTH RATE, HEALTH CARE, HEALTH ECONOMICS, HEALTH EFFECTS, HEALTH IMPACTS, HEALTH INDICATORS, HEALTH INVESTMENTS, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HEALTH SECTOR, HEALTH SERVICE, HEALTH SERVICE UTILIZATION, HEALTH SERVICES, HEALTH STATUS, HEALTH STRATEGY, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SIZE, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, HUMAN RESOURCES, HYGIENE, ILLITERACY, ILLNESS, IMPACT ON HEALTH, INCOME EFFECT, INCOME LEVELS, INFANT, INFANT DEATHS, INFANT MORTALITY, INFANT MORTALITY RATE, INFANT MORTALITY RATES, INTEREST RATE, INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY, INTERVENTION, INVESTMENTS IN EDUCATION, LABOR MARKET, LABOR PRODUCTIVITY, LAM, LATIN AMERICAN, LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION, LIVE BIRTHS, LIVING STANDARDS, LOW BIRTH WEIGHT, MACROECONOMIC EVENTS, MALARIA, MARGINAL PRODUCT, MARGINAL PRODUCTIVITY, MARGINAL UTILITY, MEDICINES, MENTAL, MENTAL HEALTH, MORBIDITY, MORTALITY, MOSQUITO NETS, MOTHER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NEGATIVE EXTERNALITIES, NUMBER OF CHILDREN, NUTRITION, NUTRITIONAL STATUS, OBESITY, OLDER AGE GROUPS, OPPORTUNITY COST, PACIFIC REGION, PARENTING, PEDIATRICS, PER CAPITA INCOME, PLACE OF RESIDENCE, POLICY IMPLICATIONS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POLLUTION, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR PEOPLE, POPULATION CENSUS, POPULATION GROUPS, POSITIVE EFFECTS, PREGNANCY, PREGNANT WOMEN, PRENATAL CARE, PREVENTIVE HEALTH CARE, PRICE FLUCTUATIONS, PRICE INCREASES, PRIMARY SCHOOL, PRIMARY SCHOOL AGE, PRIMARY SCHOOLING, PROBABILITY, PRODUCTION FUNCTION, PROGRESS, PUBLIC EDUCATION, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC HEALTH EXPENDITURES, PUBLIC HEALTH SPENDING, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SERVICES, QUALITY OF EDUCATION, REAL WAGES, RECESSION, RICHER COUNTRIES, RURAL AREAS, SAFETY, SAFETY NETS, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOL QUALITY, SCHOOL YEAR, SECONDARY SCHOOL, SECONDARY SCHOOLING, SERVICE UTILIZATION, SKILLED WORKERS, SMOKING, SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS, STATE UNIVERSITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, SUBSTITUTION EFFECT, TEACHER SALARIES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, URBAN AREAS, UTILITY FUNCTION, UTILITY MAXIMIZATION, VULNERABILITY, VULNERABLE GROUPS, WAGES, WEALTH, WORKERS, WORKFORCE, YOUNG ADULTS, YOUNG CHILDREN