Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
| dc.creator | Guenette, Justin-Damien | |
| dc.creator | Yamazaki, Takefumi | |
| dc.date | 2021-03-25T14:10:12Z | |
| dc.date | 2021-03-25T14:10:12Z | |
| dc.date | 2021-03 | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-01T00:38:36Z | |
| dc.description | The highly uncertain evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions, social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play a critical role in shaping the global recovery’s strength and durability. This paper develops a modeling approach to embed pandemic scenarios and the rollout of a vaccine in a macroeconometric model and illustrates the impact of different pandemic- and vaccine-related assumptions on growth outcomes. The pandemic and the measures to contain it, including vaccine deployment, are assumed to be represented by consumption shocks in a macroeconometric model. In the baseline scenario, social distancing and a gradual vaccination process allow policy makers to make significant inroads in containing the pandemic. In a downside scenario, insufficient pandemic control efforts accompanied by delayed vaccination leads to persistently higher infection levels and a materially worse growth outcome. In contrast, in an upside scenario, effective management of the pandemic combined with rapid vaccine deployment would set the stage for stronger growth outcomes. | |
| dc.format | application/pdf | |
| dc.format | text/plain | |
| dc.identifier | http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/718991616433868772/Projecting-the-Economic-Consequences-of-the-COVID-19-Pandemic | |
| dc.identifier | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/35304 | |
| dc.identifier | 10.1596/1813-9450-9589 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/408110 | |
| dc.language | English | |
| dc.publisher | World Bank, Washington, DC | |
| dc.relation | Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9589 | |
| dc.rights | CC BY 3.0 IGO | |
| dc.rights | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo | |
| dc.rights | World Bank | |
| dc.subject | CORONAVIRUS | |
| dc.subject | COVID-19 | |
| dc.subject | PANDEMIC IMPACT | |
| dc.subject | ECONOMIC SHOCK | |
| dc.subject | BUSINESS CYCLE | |
| dc.subject | ECONOMETRIC MODEL | |
| dc.title | Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic | |
| dc.type | Working Paper | |
| dc.type | Document de travail | |
| dc.type | Documento de trabajo |