Projecting the Economic Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The highly uncertain evolution of the
COVID-19 pandemic, influenced in part by government actions,
social behavior, and vaccine-related developments, will play
a critical role in shaping the global recovery’s strength
and durability. This paper develops a modeling approach to
embed pandemic scenarios and the rollout of a vaccine in a
macroeconometric model and illustrates the impact of
different pandemic- and vaccine-related assumptions on
growth outcomes. The pandemic and the measures to contain
it, including vaccine deployment, are assumed to be
represented by consumption shocks in a macroeconometric
model. In the baseline scenario, social distancing and a
gradual vaccination process allow policy makers to make
significant inroads in containing the pandemic. In a
downside scenario, insufficient pandemic control efforts
accompanied by delayed vaccination leads to persistently
higher infection levels and a materially worse growth
outcome. In contrast, in an upside scenario, effective
management of the pandemic combined with rapid vaccine
deployment would set the stage for stronger growth outcomes.
Palabras clave
CORONAVIRUS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC IMPACT, ECONOMIC SHOCK, BUSINESS CYCLE, ECONOMETRIC MODEL