Micro-Level Impacts of the War on Ukraine’s Agriculture Sector
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Washington, DC: World Bank
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This paper uses remotely sensed and
farm-level data to assess the micro-level impacts of the war
in Ukraine. Remotely sensed, high-resolution data on areas
of war-induced agricultural field damage in different
periods are combined with crop cover data for a 2019–23
panel of about 10,000 village councils. Estimates suggest
that there were significant negative effects of field damage
on crop area, with persistent, direct impacts, the size of
which increased over time. However, the economic losses due
to conflict-induced increased transport costs reduced
profitability by more than 60 percent, far surpassing the
losses from direct crop damage in conflict areas. The lack
of diversification into less transport cost sensitive,
higher value crops—even in areas far from the conflict
zone—points to constraints to adaptation and
diversification. By increasing the resilience of farmers in
non-conflict areas, removing such constraints could
accelerate post-conflict recovery and complement efforts
toward reconstruction in directly affected areas.
Palabras clave
UKRAINE, CONFLICT/WAR, FOOD SECURITY, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL INPUT AND OUTPUT MARKETS, ZERO HUNGER, SDG 2, PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS, SDG 16