Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach

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dc.creatorCojocaru, Alexandru
dc.creatorOlivieri, Sergio
dc.date2014-06-26T21:29:03Z
dc.date2014-06-26T21:29:03Z
dc.date2014-05
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:56:21Z
dc.descriptionThe continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2014/05/19574666/updating-poverty-estimates-serbia-absence-micro-data-microsimulation-approach
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/18797
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-6889
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/413240
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen_US
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Paper;No. 6889
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAGGREGATE INEQUALITY
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL INCOMES
dc.subjectAGRICULTURAL SECTOR
dc.subjectAGRICULTURE
dc.subjectANNUAL % CHANGE
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH
dc.subjectANNUAL GROWTH RATE
dc.subjectAVERAGE ANNUAL
dc.subjectCALORIE INTAKE
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION GROWTH
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION LEVELS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION SMOOTHING
dc.subjectDECLINING POVERTY
dc.subjectDEMAND SIDE
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT POLICY
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES
dc.subjectDIVIDENDS
dc.subjectECONOMETRICS
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONTRACTION
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC SECTOR
dc.subjectECONOMIC SECTORS
dc.subjectECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectECONOMIC SITUATION
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT STATUS
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFOOD BASKET
dc.subjectFOOD REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectFORECASTS
dc.subjectGDP
dc.subjectGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
dc.subjectGROWTH ELASTICITY
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHBS
dc.subjectHBS DATA
dc.subjectHBS INCOME
dc.subjectHISTORICAL DATA
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD BUDGET
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD DATA
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD HEADS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD MEMBERS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectIMPACT ANALYSIS
dc.subjectINCIDENCE OF POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME COMPONENTS
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectINCOME DYNAMICS
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME MEAN
dc.subjectINCOME SOURCE
dc.subjectINCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectINDIVIDUAL INCOMES
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY MEASURES
dc.subjectINFLATION RATES
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR INCOME
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectLOW INCOME
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CONTEXT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC POLICIES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMEAN GROWTH
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subjectNET INCOME
dc.subjectNEW POOR
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPER CAPITA CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOLICY DISCUSSIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY REFORMS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESEARCH
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOSITIVE GROWTH
dc.subjectPOVERTY CHANGES
dc.subjectPOVERTY DYNAMICS
dc.subjectPOVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY GAP
dc.subjectPOVERTY HEADCOUNT
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACT
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCIDENCE
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCREASE
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURE
dc.subjectPOVERTY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPROGRAMS
dc.subjectPUBLIC TRANSFERS
dc.subjectRELATIVE IMPORTANCE
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
dc.subjectSIMULATIONS
dc.subjectSKILL LEVEL
dc.subjectSOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectSOCIAL TRANSFERS
dc.subjectUNDERESTIMATES
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectUTILITY MAXIMIZATION
dc.titleUpdating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach

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