Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach

Cojocaru, Alexandru; Olivieri, Sergio

Updating the Poverty Estimates in Serbia in the Absence of Micro Data : A Microsimulation Approach

Autores

Cojocaru, Alexandru

Olivieri, Sergio

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for.

Palabras clave

AGGREGATE INEQUALITY, AGRICULTURAL INCOMES, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURE, ANNUAL % CHANGE, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE ANNUAL, CALORIE INTAKE, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CONSUMPTION LEVELS, CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING, DECLINING POVERTY, DEMAND SIDE, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DISTRIBUTIONAL CHANGES, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT, DISTRIBUTIONAL MEASURES, DIVIDENDS, ECONOMETRICS, ECONOMIC CONTRACTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC SECTOR, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ECONOMIC SHOCKS, ECONOMIC SITUATION, ELASTICITY, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, FARMERS, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FOOD BASKET, FOOD REQUIREMENTS, FORECASTS, GDP, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH ELASTICITY, GROWTH RATES, HBS, HBS DATA, HBS INCOME, HISTORICAL DATA, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET, HOUSEHOLD BUDGET SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD DATA, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD INCOMES, HOUSEHOLD MEMBERS, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, IMPACT ANALYSIS, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, INCOME, INCOME COMPONENTS, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, INCOME DISTRIBUTIONS, INCOME DYNAMICS, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME MEAN, INCOME SOURCE, INCREASING UNEMPLOYMENT, INDIVIDUAL INCOMES, INEQUALITY, INEQUALITY MEASURES, INFLATION RATES, LABOR FORCE, LABOR INCOME, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKETS, LOW INCOME, MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC SHOCKS, MEAN GROWTH, NATIONAL POVERTY, NET INCOME, NEW POOR, PENSIONS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY DISCUSSIONS, POLICY REFORMS, POLICY RESEARCH, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POPULATION GROWTH, POSITIVE GROWTH, POVERTY CHANGES, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GAP, POVERTY HEADCOUNT, POVERTY IMPACT, POVERTY INCIDENCE, POVERTY INCREASE, POVERTY LINE, POVERTY MEASURE, POVERTY MEASURES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRICE CHANGES, PROGRAMS, PUBLIC TRANSFERS, RELATIVE IMPORTANCE, RELATIVE PRICES, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, SAVINGS, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES, SIMULATIONS, SKILL LEVEL, SOCIAL ASSISTANCE, SOCIAL TRANSFERS, UNDERESTIMATES, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UTILITY MAXIMIZATION