Pakistan : Path to Rapid Growth and Job Creation

Lopez-Calix, José

Pakistan : Path to Rapid Growth and Job Creation

Autores

Descripción

Pakistan's rebound from the global financial crisis has been slow and fragile, and unless it changes course swiftly, it could face the prospects of a second balance of payments crisis in less than five years. Its recovery from the 2008-09 global financial crisis has been the weakest in South Asia, featuring a unique double-dip growth pattern. With high fertility, Pakistan will double the size of its already young population by 2025. The only way to convert this massive demographic bulge from a political and social burden to an exceptional dividend is through rapid and inclusive growth that creates millions of new and better jobs. In sum, the two main challenges are improving the types of jobs available and enabling people to move into those more productive activities. The binding constraints to Pakistan's growth are both emerging and structural. Emerging constraints include massive cuts in electricity access and macroeconomic instability, leading to high country risk and a sudden stop in external and domestic financing. Structural constraints include low access to domestic finance and government and market failures (micro risks) that impede investment, entrepreneurial activity, and competitiveness, blocking the transition from low-productivity to high-productivity jobs. Pakistan is at a turning point. It could stick to a status quo of piecemeal reforms leading to partial and unsatisfactory outcomes, which at best would lead it to recover its modest historic growth rate of 4-4.5 percent, or it could aim for a bold reform agenda supporting rapid growth (on or above 7 percent) and job creation. Both options are possible, but the former would make it very difficult for Pakistan to meet the aspirations of its people, and especially of its youth.

Palabras clave

ACCESS TO CREDIT, ACCESS TO FINANCE, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, AGRICULTURAL TAX, AGRICULTURE, AMORTIZATIONS, ANTI-EXPORT BIAS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS CRISIS, BANK CREDIT, BANK FINANCING, BANKS, BARRIERS TO COMPETITION, BORROWING, CAPACITY BUILDING, CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CENTRAL BANK, COAL, COLLATERAL, COLLATERAL SYSTEM, COMPETITIVENESS, CORPORATE GOVERNANCE, CORRUPTION, COUNTRY RISK, CPI, CREDIBILITY, CREDIT CRUNCH, CREDIT EXPANSION, CREDIT LINES, CREDIT MARKETS, CROWDING OUT, CURRENCY, CURRENCY CRISIS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, DEBT, DECLINE IN INVESTMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, DIVERSIFICATION, DOMESTIC MARKETS, EARNINGS, ECONOMIC CLIMATE, ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC SITUATION, EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT, ELASTICITY, EMPLOYER, ENDOWMENTS, ENROLLMENT, ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT, ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITY, ENVIRONMENTAL, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPENDITURE, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORTER, EXPORTS, EXTERNAL DEBT, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL IMBALANCES, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, EXTERNALITIES, FAMILY FARMS, FAMILY INCOME, FARMERS, FARMS, FEMALE ENTREPRENEURS, FEMALE LITERACY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FINANCIAL RESOURCES, FISCAL CONSTRAINTS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL REFORM, FLEXIBLE EXCHANGE RATE, FOOD SHORTAGES, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET, FORMAL LOANS, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GINI COEFFICIENT, GOVERNMENT BORROWING, GOVERNMENT SPENDING, GREEN REVOLUTION, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH PATTERN, GROWTH POTENTIAL, GROWTH RATE, HIGH ELASTICITY, HIGH GROWTH, HOLDING, HOUSEHOLDS, HUMAN CAPITAL, HUMAN RESOURCE, ID, INCOME LEVEL, INEQUALITIES, INEQUALITY, INFLATION, INFLATION RATES, INFORMAL ECONOMY, INSTITUTIONAL REFORM, INSTRUMENT, INTEREST RATES, INTERMEDIATE GOODS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL CREDIT, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INVENTORY, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, INVESTMENT RATE, JOB CREATION, JOB OPPORTUNITIES, LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION, LACK OF ACCESS, LAND OWNERSHIP, LAND REGISTRATION, LANDLESS HOUSEHOLDS, LEVEL PLAYING FIELD, LINES OF CREDIT, LIQUIDITY, LIVING STANDARD, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MARKET FAILURES, MICROFINANCE, MIGRANT WORKERS, MONETARY FUND, MONETARY POLICIES, MONETARY POLICY, MOVABLE COLLATERAL, NATURAL DISASTERS, NATURAL ENDOWMENTS, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL, OPEN ECONOMY, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PHYSICAL CAPITAL, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POPULATION SHARE, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY REDUCTION, PRIVATE CREDIT, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE INVESTMENTS, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PUBLIC DEBT, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, PUBLIC POLICY, PUBLIC SAVINGS, PURCHASING POWER, PURCHASING POWER PARITY, RAPID GROWTH, REAL GDP, REAL INTEREST, REAL INTEREST RATES, RED TAPE, REDUCED POVERTY, REGISTRATION SYSTEM, REGULATORY BARRIERS, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, REMITTANCES, REPAYMENTS, RESERVE, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, RESERVES, RETURNS, RICH COUNTRIES, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SELF-EMPLOYMENT, SMALL BUSINESSES, SMALL ENTERPRISES, SMALLHOLDER, SOCIAL NETWORKS, SOCIAL SECURITY, SOVEREIGN BONDS, STAGFLATION, SUPPLY CHAINS, TAX EXEMPTIONS, TAX POLICY, TAX REFORM, TAX REVENUE, TAX REVENUES, TAXATION, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, TERRORISM, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TOTAL OUTPUT, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REGIME, TRANSPARENCY, UNEMPLOYMENT, URBAN AREAS, URUGUAY ROUND, WATER POLLUTION, WEALTH, WOMAN, WOMEN ENTREPRENEURS